6d • Body Fat Loss
Post 10 · Where the limits are
Every series like this should end by saying where it stops.
Here is where this one stops.
The cap is a policy, not a physiology.
The plan slows fat loss to 290 kJ (69 kcal) a day per kilogram of fat mass, falling as fat falls.
That number comes from a 2005 model and has never been tested directly.
What is measured is the reason for the cap: at 2,090 kJ (500 kcal) a day, 8.8% of the loss was lean; at 5,230 kJ (1,250 kcal), 1.3%.
Slower loses more fat and maintains resting metabolism better across pooled trials. (R§11) Verified for the lean cost; Assumption for the number.
There is no daily ceiling on fat oxidation, and that is measured three ways.
Fat oxidation kept rising through 60 hours of fasting in a chamber. (R§8)
Three lean men on 3,350 kJ (800 kcal) a day oxidised 177 g of fat a day, about 6,550 kJ (1,565 kcal). (R§8)
A man in Dundee ran about 10.5 MJ (2,500 kcal) a day from his store, every day, for 382 days, under supervision. (R§9)
The deficit sets the rate. Verified.
A crash deficit does not make you fatter.
Twenty people on 2,500 to 3,350 kJ (600 to 800 kcal) a day for four months lost 16.5 kg of fat on a DXA scan. (R§10)
What it does is take the loss from the wrong tissue.
You get smaller in the wrong proportions. Verified.
Individual variation is enormous.
More than half the variance in maximal fat oxidation between athletes is unexplained by body composition or fitness. (R§63)
Nothing in this series predicts your rate. Verified.
Liver bloods say less than people think.
AST and ALT clear from the blood at different speeds, about 1.13 days and 0.47 days.
So the ratio keeps shifting after the injury has stopped.
A falling ratio does not mean recovery, and a single reading tells you little. (Sherman & Goessling, 2024, from 6.5 million measurements; R§50) Verified.
Four things nobody has tested.
Whether sodium replacement relieves the first-week symptoms; the mechanism is measured, the relief is not. (R§29)
Whether the fasted-morning rise in one day's fat oxidation adds up over weeks; the day is measured, the weeks are not. (R§35)
Whether the browning effect of ketones exists at diet-level concentrations; the literature is split. (R§28) Whether the hormone axis holds in women with obesity at 3,350 kJ (800 kcal) a day; the plan's cycle check is the safeguard. (R§47) Unfalsified, all four.
Calorie counts the energy released; they don't account for efficiency.
That one line answers most of the stories that arrive here: the calorie is a lie, humans don't combust food, weigh your food in grams.
The count is right and has been since 1910.
What it cannot see is where the energy goes once it is in: to work, to heat, or nowhere.
That is a separate question with a separate section, and it changes nothing about the deficit, the floors or the cap.
(R§12b, and Part XV for the reader who wants the whole argument)
Roughly a third of the full document is judgement.
A judgement can be sound or unsound.
It cannot be accurate.
Everything that can be checked as of today has been, and everything else is labelled so you know which is which.
If you find a claim in this series without a label, or with the wrong one, please post it.
Which of the five sentences changed what you're actually going to do this month?
5
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Post 10 · Where the limits are
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