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This is an amazing tool for finding the real rate of interest. Adjustments to the neutral rate, the effective funds, and inflation expectations to determine the real rate , accommodating or restricting. https://codepen.io/Uneducated-Economist-/pen/ogBpjYv
Economic Research for the Intentional Investor - Substack
Hi everyone, I’ve officially launched a Substack and already have several research articles posted that line up closely with a lot of the topics, ideas, and theories we discuss here in the UE Community. A big part of the research is built around the Credible Threat Theory (CTT), monetary policy, inflation, business investment, market behavior, and the way changes in expectations can ripple through the economy. The way I look at it, professional investors rarely rely on a single source of information. They read research, economic papers, company filings, central-bank communications, industry reports, and competing viewpoints, then use all of that to build their own thesis. My goal is simply to add another research/theory source to the mix—one with a somewhat unique foundation in the CTT. I want the articles to challenge assumptions, connect ideas that may not normally get connected, and hopefully spark some great conversations. Tonight I also posted a FREE article available to everyone so you can get a feel for the type of material I’m producing. And yes… AI is involved. I know some people immediately hear “AI-generated” and think, no thanks. Fair enough. But I want to be clear about how I use it: I choose the research questions, guide the direction of the analysis, develop the thesis, and base the work on credible primary and institutional sources such as Federal Reserve speeches and publications, NBER working papers, monetary policy reports, academic research, and similar material. AI is a research and drafting tool—not a replacement for source selection, judgment, or critical thinking. So go check out the FREE article. https://research4theintentionalinvestor.substack.com/p/from-post-2008-disinflation-to-ratcheting?r=1zje39&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true Spoiler: I think it’s awesome, very relevant, and extremely timely.
Economic Research for the Intentional Investor - Substack
Poking holes into Dalio's narrative - and other debt fear mongering
Dalio's article: https://time.com/article/2026/08/28/the-bond-market-s-supply-and-demand-problem/ and we're not even talking about global economies adopting USD backed digital currencies, or the use of foreign debt following a totally coincidental shock/reason yet.
Have They Ever Been At 2%
Investors are finally catching on that the fed likes getting high and staying high. "If the Fed will not bear the cost of hitting its target, it does not really have that target anymore, and every portfolio built for a 2% return is mispriced." https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/04/jpmorgans-own-strategist-says-the-fed-has-quietly-surrendered-on-2-inflation/
Right around the 40 min mark sounds real familiar
I enjoyed this one from the Yoda of QE I hope you do as well https://youtu.be/aaCXNnI9cgQ?is=VDwDHalREj4EveMl
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Breaking down complex economic topics for the average everyday person to internalize to make the best decision for themselves and their families.
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