Breaking down the current events through the lens of the Credible Threat Theory

@Simon Caron - your emphasis on manufacturing coming in and out of the state from Cantillon's Essay has been spot on in my opinion. I think in here there is 1 piece that Cantillon could not have foreseen: robotics in manufacturing. With incentives like 100% depreciation in the first year and other tax credits, I think it's very likely we see more capital and manufacturing come back to the US. But here's the catch: modern factories need almost no human labor at all. So what happens then? The capital owners are the ones who produce. The after effect: as the producers, the capital owners receive all the savings and new money that comes into the state, and the State receives its share through taxation. Who gets cut out of the picture? The average working American trying to earn on labor instead of capital. I think we're staring down the barrel of the State and Capital Owners hoarding the savings. The Capital Owners then redeploy their savings and compound their wealth (and continue to receive the new money) and the State expands its programs with its share of the new money. Before you know it, the middle class is now melted into the lower classes as dependent on government programs (i.e. falling into poverty). Your livestreams have really helped move some gears in my head, so I wanted to give back. I have a couple of more ideas that I will share here as well. Agree? Disagree? What are others thoughts here?

If you are protecting the shipping channels then you are the maritime state. "If the state is a maritime state, the easiness and low cost of its shipping for the transport of its com- modities and manufactured goods to foreign countries may compensate, in some way, for the high cost of labor caused by the overabundance of money." Cantillon essay https://cdn.mises.org/An%20Essay%20on%20Economic%20Theory_2.pdf https://news.usni.org/2026/04/11/two-u-s-warships-sail-through-strait-of-hormuz-to-establish-new-route-for-merchant-ships

What perfect a time to establish a credible threat than to do it over the weekend before markets open. The "Hell on Earth" has run its course and now the "the Navy will block" oil from getting through the Strait of Hormuz. That should keep inflation expectations elevated. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Hey guys! I've been thinking a lot about faith. By that, I mean, my personal relationship to the divine, within myself, and all around. I'm just wondering if you guys are believers. If so, what do you do to "cultivate" that faith of yours? Does it help you in your everyday life? And does it help you withstanding the economic stress we are being put under? Do you guys have any little "tips" to keep yourself in line with that faith, hence not drop the ball everytime a difficult situation arises. I know it is not totally linked to the economy, but I think that it helps to talk about it, and be relaxed about what's happening around us. Cheers!