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Owned by Simon

UE University

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Breaking down complex economic topics for the average everyday person to internalize to make the best decision for themselves and their families.

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113 contributions to UE University
Mervyn King from 1995 - a great read
Here is a sample: "But markets, and for that matter voters, are naturally suspicious. The announced intentions are much more credible if there are incentives to pursue the stated course of action. A future monetary policy action is credible if it is in the interest of the monetary authorities to enact this policy when the time comes. Hence policy is credible when the authorities’ actions are, as economists put it, ‘time consistent’, that is the authorities have no incentive to deviate from their original intentions." "The ability of the authorities to spring monetary surprises on an unsuspecting public allows them to exploit the short-term trade-off between inflation and output to achieve temporarily higher output. Anticipating this reaction, economic agents in the private sector come to expect inflation and to build such expectations into their wage and price-setting behaviour. Inflation will rise to a level beyond which the authorities will not choose to spring further inflation surprises, and the result of this ‘game’ between public and private sectors is an inbuilt inflation bias to policy."
2 likes • 2d
That statement at the end says a lot. "Credibility is about beliefs on the factory floor, just as much as on the trading floor. The performance of the monetary authorities may be judged day by day in the financial markets but ultimately what matters are the views of employers and employees, and of savers and shoppers. As the Americans would say, it is Main Street not Wall Street which will determine the inflation rate."
Q.E. Failed To Produce Inflation
Listening to the problems of the past can predict future behavior. "Sorry, we loved you. But when reserves go from $50 billion to $3 trillion and nothing at all happens to inflation -- or at most we're arguing about percentage points -- it has to go out the window." 2014 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2014/11/the-neo-fisherian-question.html?m=1
3 likes • 3d
@Kendall Simon this takes a little bit of time, some say they have to listen for a year or more before they start to get it. Hopefully with the information provided in the classroom we can shorten that time.
Good Old Family Fight
Warsh said it 13 times. More than any other phrase. https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/07/22/kevin-warsh-has-homed-in-on-three-key-phrases-how-fed-watchers-interpret-them.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17847488874018&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2026%2F07%2F22%2Fkevin-warsh-has-homed-in-on-three-key-phrases-how-fed-watchers-interpret-them.html
The Fed Is Always Wrong
Is the Fed wrong or is everyone wrong about the Fed? " If the Neo-Fisherites are right, then not only is the Fed massively confused about what it's doing, but much of the private sector may be reacting in the wrong way to monetary policy shifts. " https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/understanding-neo-fisherite-rebellion?hl=en-US#:~:text=What's%20at%20stake%3A%20Neo%2DFisherism%20is%20on%20the,view%20when%20people's%20expectations%20are%20infinitely%20rational
2 likes • 6d
This is kind of an old article but I find it telling considering the current regime
2 likes • 5d
Realistic expectations do not align with reality. GFC had low rates and low inflation, even now higher rates and inflation that is persistently too high. Seems AI summary is leaning into the narrative.
YouTube blocked terms and tags?
Out of curiosity, what were some of the terms and tags that YT was censoring?
2 likes • 18d
Crisis, monetary policy, were the two i remember off hand
1 like • 6d
Couldn't tell you. It might just be me. Some people are white listed, George could be a qualified contributor. He seems pretty popular with the algorithm. Does he talk about r*?
1-10 of 113
Simon Caron
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@simon-caron-4316
Self-educated economist with a career based in the lumber industry breaking down complex economic theories and how they impact our daily lives

Active 4h ago
Joined Jan 18, 2026
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