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UE University
314 members • $20/month
6 contributions to UE University
22d •
Has Housing Hit Bottom
When will Housing hit bottom? The million dollar question. Knowing what we know about the real rates coming down or possibly going negative, I could confidently say yes it has bottomed. But things can change fast and if gas prices and fear of economic chaos diminish, I feel that reduction of inflation expectations would trigger the downturn. So backwards from how people see the economy. The elevated inflation expectations lowers the real rates making the economy less restricted and the finacial system could possibly find themselves negative with the real rate, stealth stimulus. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/positive-housing-demand-leads-to-inventory-almost-going-negative-yoy/
0 likes • 16h
@Ch Ed For what it's worth, here is a second theory (although a bit more difficult to identify unless you're willing to zoom in on the daily time frames) on where we might be. I see upside either way, but I won't know for how long until the patterns play out further. I own stock in a real-estate development company (not shown here) with a higher degree of certainty on timing though, and for that company we are around March of 2004. Personally, I believe home builders lead real-estate development. The market gets hot for home builders and then developers see additional opportunity/demand so they get to work developing once demand is obvious.
0 likes • 16h
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6d •
Iran war
What am I missing, I feel like this is a for US dollars to get out in the world or something like that but I'm not able to connect the dots
3 likes • 6d
Elevated inflation expectations of businesses, global "leaders", and the general public. If central banks have a reason to hold rates constant while inflation expectations rise, real rates fall and this stimulates the top 20% of consumers to spend. All the while market cycles repeat, although in magnified proportions (volatility) based on ever increasing available dollars.
1 like • 6d
@Jack Stewart for sure! I look forward to reading other takes on it too. That's just my perspective.
2 likes • 7d
Very nice, thank you
8d •
Tough Talk
Very interesting document on the fed communication and impacts it has on the markets. Warsh regime change may attempt to end this sort of federal reserve behavior. "We contribute to this body of work by identifying an essential component of policy stance that is developed during the FOMC meeting, but that does not get revealed via the FOMC announcement. We then show that this information reaches the public domain via the Fed’s communication, affecting risk premium throughout the intermeeting period." https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4560220
3 likes • 8d
Cool summary shares, thanks Brody
10d •
Recessionless Recession Charting
Not financial advice, theory charting only based on the use of Simon's "recessionless recession", monetary policy, macro events, and my own research.
2 likes • 10d
you're very welcome.. there's no way to know exactly where we are at but if it weren't for Simon's idea of a recessionless recession, I would think we are still back in the late 90's.
1-6 of 6
Active 2h ago
Joined Jan 20, 2026
In the charts, daily
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