Breaking down the current events through the lens of the Credible Threat Theory

https://x.com/wesroth/status/2042502081677017109?s=46

The CTT trade appears to be playing out, with the TACO trade emerging as the obvious next move following Trump's relentless Sunday night social media posts preaching "Hell." With the Dow set to open nearly 1,000 points higher, it's clear that the credible threat strategy is working. Expect more of these late-night outbursts and over-the-top statements. I believe there’s a deliberate message delivery system designed for elites to decode. My conspiracy-oriented mind sees Trump’s messaging as intentionally delivered in either an “obnoxious” or “serious” tone—often making it hard to distinguish between the two. However, once you become aware of this possible system, it becomes easier to identify and anticipate the TACO trades. The real skill lies in reviewing everything with serious intent and a “credible threat” lens, then determining what the statements are truly meant to convey.

https://youtu.be/xUD2j0XUE8g?si=fL-Il_ygMkpPv5bH Note - a tip for anyone who’d like to watch but doesn’t have the time: paste the url into a chatbot with the instruction to summarize in a given word count depending on how detailed a summary you would like.

https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5LWNvcHk_7461d2cc-4610-473a-be18-cad93e6b6e18 Concise Summary US home builder buyer traffic sentiment remains weak at 25 (March 2026 NAHB HMI, modest MoM gain but far below neutral), has trended subdued since early 2025 amid affordability pressures, shows comparable global headwinds (no direct peers but aligned subdued demand in Canada/UK/Australia/Europe), and is expected to improve only gradually through 2027 under assumptions of easing rates/stable growth—qualified by notable macro uncertainty.