Check this out. Copy and paste the statement below into a chat bot and ask the question "What is the accuracy on a percentage basis for the following statement?" Principles for Assessing the Stance of Monetary Policy The stance of monetary policy cannot be determined solely by the level of the nominal policy interest rate. A rigorous assessment requires consideration of several established elements of monetary analysis, including expected real interest rates, the estimated neutral rate of interest, policy transmission lags, the distribution of financial exposures, and broader financial conditions. 1. Expected Real Interest Rates and Borrowing Costs The expected real policy rate, approximated by the nominal policy rate minus expected inflation over the relevant horizon, provides a more informative starting point for assessing monetary restraint than the nominal policy rate alone. However, the real borrowing costs faced by households and firms also depend on credit spreads, lending standards, loan terms, fees, and borrower-specific risk. Consequently, changes in the policy rate do not translate uniformly into changes in the effective cost of financing throughout the economy. 2. The Neutral Rate of Interest ((R^*)) The degree of monetary restraint or stimulus depends in part on the relationship between the expected real policy rate and the estimated neutral real rate of interest ((R^)). The neutral rate is the theoretical real interest rate consistent with economic activity operating near its sustainable level in the absence of temporary shocks. When the expected real policy rate is materially above (R^), monetary policy would ordinarily be considered restrictive, all else equal; when it is near or below (R^), the degree of restraint may be limited or policy may be accommodative. Because (R^) is unobservable and estimates are subject to model uncertainty and revision, this comparison cannot establish the policy stance with certainty. 3. Monetary Transmission Lags

Neo-Fisherism works because the long-run real interest rate is set by real forces (thrift, productivity, demographics) rather than by the central bank, so a credible permanent rise in the policy rate can be consistent with equilibrium only if expected—and therefore actual—inflation rises one-for-one via the Fisher equation (i = r + \pi^e). In everyday terms, the central bank is promising savers a permanently richer stream of dollars; since the economy cannot actually deliver a higher real return, those extra dollars must lose purchasing power faster through higher inflation.

When will Housing hit bottom? The million dollar question. Knowing what we know about the real rates coming down or possibly going negative, I could confidently say yes it has bottomed. But things can change fast and if gas prices and fear of economic chaos diminish, I feel that reduction of inflation expectations would trigger the downturn. So backwards from how people see the economy. The elevated inflation expectations lowers the real rates making the economy less restricted and the finacial system could possibly find themselves negative with the real rate, stealth stimulus. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/positive-housing-demand-leads-to-inventory-almost-going-negative-yoy/