Sahil Bloom shared something this week that hit me. Researchers at Yale found that people consistently overestimate how well they understand everyday things — a zipper, a toilet flush, a bicycle. Confidence scores were sevens. Write it out step by step? They collapsed to twos. He calls it the Illusion of Explanatory Depth. I think it's one of the most underrated traps in retirement planning. Most of us picked a number — $1M, $2M, $5K/month in passive income — through a kind of cultural osmosis. We heard it somewhere, it sounded right, and we filed it away as the goal. But when did we last actually defend that number? Here's the test I ran on myself: → Write down your retirement target → Then write what that number actually buys you — month by month, in specific dollars → Then ask: does this match the life I actually want to live? The first time I did this, I found my number was built on assumptions I'd never questioned. Generic lifestyle costs. A vague sense of "enough." Nothing tied to my real expenses or the income streams I'm actually building. @Eric Seto talks about this in the accelerator — the difference between having a number and having a plan. They're not the same thing. A retirement number is a wish. A plan is a thesis you can defend. What's your current target — and can you name one specific thing that number pays for in your ideal month? Drop it below 👇