27 reasons why gold is going higher, and the stock market is going lower
27 reasons why gold is going higher, and the stock market is going lower. Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com 1) Debt Bubble. This has led to fiscal dominance and a $2T deficit and $1T interest payments. 2) Fragile US Government bond market. Foreign buyers have dried up. 3) Geopolitics. The Ukraine and Iran wars have created global instability and uncertainty. The BRICS+ nations are creating an alternative to the SWIFT system for international payments. 4) Tariffs. These are essentially taxes paid by consumers and create headwinds for the economy. 5) Inflation. The cost-of-living impact from inflation has not subsided. Plus, tariffs and oil prices are currently pushing inflation higher. Gasoline, interest rates, and inflation are all stuck at high levels. 6) Overvalued Stock Market. With a forward PE around 22 and a Buffett Indicator over 200%, the stock market is due for a crash. Dave Collum thinks it is overvalued by 200% and that it will revert to its mean. 7) De-dollarization. Countries are swapping their dollar reserves for gold. Plus, we are seeing more trade in non-dollar currencies. 8) Employment. This clearly has weakened over the past 12 months. It now takes about 6-months to replace a job. Normally, that number is 3 months. New college graduates are having trouble finding a job. 9) Housing. The cost for a new or existing house is around $450K. Housing affordability is at historic levels. Inventory levels are rising rapidly, and a crisis is emerging. March’s existing housing sales were the second-lowest on record for March. Only March of 2009 were lower. 10) Autos-Trucks. At current interest rates, the average auto loan is around 8%. The combination of tariffs and high interest rates makes autos and trucks unaffordable. 11) ISM Data. The ISM data for manufacturing and services has been weak for years. It does not appear to be improving. 12) Office Vacancies. Since COVID, the vacancy rate for commercial real estate has been at crisis levels and does not appear to be improving.