Hey DeFi fam, sharing some key insights from our live call earlier today that could impact our strategies moving forward. 🎯 The Cycle End Signal to Watch The most reliable indicator for timing cycle ends? Weekly closes on BTC below the 50-week moving average. Historically, when we see a couple of consecutive weekly closes below this level, it's been a consistent signal that the cycle is over. We're nowhere near that yet. 🚀 Why This Euphoria Has Legs With the current administration's plans to expand credit impulse in the US, we're likely looking at several more months of real euphoria before any major correction. When that correction comes, expect it from much higher levels than where we are today. 💡 The MSTR Debate While MicroStrategy (MSTR) gets a lot of attention as a Bitcoin proxy, consider this perspective: - Spot holdings offer more direct exposure without the complexity - Digital asset treasury companies represent an unproven model - For those already comfortable with buying, lending, and hedging crypto directly, MSTR might be unnecessarily complicated As one community member put it: "Why get cute with MSTR when you already know how to handle the underlying assets?" 🏆 The Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Thesis Here's something fascinating to monitor: Liquidity has been flowing into gold rather than Bitcoin recently. There's historically been a lagging correlation where: 1. Gold rips first 2. Gold consolidates gains 3. Bitcoin starts moving upward (potential rotation from gold → BTC) How to track this: Watch Bitcoin priced in gold terms. If BTC breaks above 36 in gold terms, it would invalidate the current head and shoulders pattern and confirm the rotation is happening. 📈 Treasury Yields: The Hidden Variable Remember last September when Powell cut rates by 50 basis points? Long-end yields pushed higher, driving the dollar up - but Bitcoin rallied anyway. We're seeing similar dynamics now after the recent 25 basis point cut. This could create near-term headwinds, but history suggests Bitcoin can power through.

Hey Skool crew! 👋 Let's talk about something crucial: identifying crypto assets that don't just pump during alt season but that actually hold their gains through the corrections. The Million Dollar Question 💭 When Bitcoin rockets up (potentially heading to $180K-200K this year, fingers crossed), it triggers alt season madness. Everything moons... then reality hits. But here's what separates winners from losers: Some assets retain their gains while others completely collapse. A few of The Survivors 📊 BNB: The Business-Backed Beast - Last cycle: Surged from $30 → $700 → corrected to $200 - Today: Trading at ~$980 - Why it survives: Anchored to a rock-solid protocol that's essentially a profitable business This is the pattern we're hunting for—tokens that correct from higher bases, locking in substantial gains even during downturns. ETH: The Ecosystem Giant - Current price: ~$4,500 - The thesis: Even if it pumps to $8,000 and corrects, it would likely find support at elevated levels (think $5,000, not $2,000) - Key strength: The ecosystem is too robust for total wipeouts Solana: The Phoenix Rising - The journey: $255 peak → $8 crash → Now back at ~$240 - The shift: Moving from meme coin mania to tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) - Why it matters: Less TVL in fluff, more in bridging crypto to real finance = sustained value DOGE: The Meme with a Twist 🐶 - Current price: ~$0.28 - The edge: Unlike most meme coins, DOGE is an actual Layer-1 blockchain (you can build on it!) The Winning Formula 🎯 Look for these three critical factors: 1. Profitable Protocols 💰 2. Mass Accessibility 🌍 3. Emerging Utility ⚡ Action Plan 📋 In these volatile markets, I prioritize: - Projects with actual business models - Tokens with widespread exchange support - Assets showing real-world adoption Remember: Higher lows are the name of the game. The best investments don't just pump—they establish a new, higher base after corrections. Let's Discuss 🔥

The AI boom is missing something crucial: actual profits. Tech giants are burning billions on NVIDIA chips and data centers, following what looks like the South Park underpants gnomes business model: Step 1: Buy GPUs Step 2: ??? Step 3: Profit And that question mark? It's becoming a massive problem. 📊 The NVIDIA Bubble Consider this jaw-dropping fact: NVIDIA alone represents 8% of the entire market. If it were a stock exchange, it would be the world's third-largest. The company's chart has already "rolled over," and if it corrects, it could drag the entire market down with it. The math only works if AI replaces all human labor within 2-3 years. That timeline? Increasingly unrealistic. ⚡ The Infrastructure Problem These "hyperscalers" are building massive data centers, but there's a catch – the United States doesn't even have enough power infrastructure to support them. It's like ordering a fleet of Teslas without building charging stations. 💻 The Software Revolution Here's where AI has actually delivered: software is now essentially free. Anyone with Cursor and Claude can build almost any application imaginable. Revolutionary? Yes. But if AI can make software free but can't quickly eliminate labor costs, are these valuations justified? 🪙 The Bitcoin-Gold Scenario The plot thickens with an interesting market prediction: - If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points... - And long-term yields rise... - Gold would likely surge... - But if Bitcoin starts trading like gold... We could see Bitcoin hit $250,000 by year-end. The key? Bitcoin needs to benefit from bond outflows as yields increase, just like gold does. ═══════════════════════════════════ The Bottom Line 🎯 We're at a critical crossroads. The AI revolution is real, but the financial engineering has gotten ahead of the technology. Companies are betting everything on profits that may take much longer to materialize than Wall Street expects. For investors, this creates a fascinating dilemma: stick with potentially overvalued tech stocks or rotate into alternatives like gold and Bitcoin? The answer might depend on whether the Fed makes what our speaker colorfully calls a "boo-boo" at the next meeting.

Hello everyone and welcome. As we begin building out DeFi University together, please know that any ideas you may have for a new tool, a new live call, a new course, anything that you'd like to build or incorporate in to add more value for us, the community members, that is 100% a yes here. This community is AI first, which simply means that we learn together how to use AI tools to build what will generate more value for us, the community members. We hope to foster an environment of learning and growth in many different areas of life within our DeFi University community, and now with these new AI tools any suggestion that any member has which will add value can quickly be built out and incorporated in. It's a very exciting and transformative time that we live in. To foster a sense of community spirit, please introduce yourself in the general chat as you join, and share a bit about yourself so that we can all get to know one another better. Live calls in the community take place every day Monday through Friday and they are open to all members. See you on the next live call and in the DeFi U chats! -David