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Market Review & Week Ahead is happening in 3 days
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Market Update: BTC Dominance, and ETH Outlook ๐Ÿ“Š
Hey DeFi fam, wanted to share some key insights from today's market analysis: Macro Economic Outlook ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿ“ˆ We're looking at increased credit impulse and manufacturing growth ahead, driven by Treasury Secretary Bessent and President Trump's policies. The ISM (manufacturing index) is still below 50, but once it breaks above that level, expect the next leg up for the S&P ๐Ÿš€ Bitcoin & Crypto Market Structure โ‚ฟ This recent SPX dip? It was necessary. This isn't a top - it's a healthy correction that Bitcoin has already front-run. We're getting very close to a trough, though expect another week or two of chop or potential further downside ๐Ÿ“‰ ETH Price Action Alert โš ๏ธ Ben Cowen (one of the analysts I follow closely) has been calling for: - Bitcoin dominance to push back above 60% ๐Ÿ“Š - ETH to touch its 21-week moving average at $3,400 ๐ŸŽฏ - That's roughly 12-13% downside from current levels ๐Ÿ‘€ The 21-week MA moves much faster than the 50 or 200-week MAs, so if we see another 1-2 weeks of downside, this target becomes increasingly likely โฐ The System > Emotions Approach ๐Ÿง ๐Ÿ’ช Real talk: I'm responsibly long ETH and yes, dealing with drawdowns over the past 2 weeks ๐Ÿ“‰ But here's the thing: having a system removes the emotion. When you trade based on probability and systems thinking rather than feelings, drawdowns become just part of the process. No elite trader magic required - just disciplined systematic execution โš™๏ธ The key takeaway? Build a system that allows you to manage risk without letting emotions drive your decisions. Poor emotional decisions are what blow up accounts ๐Ÿ’ฅ What's your take on the ETH 21-week MA touch? Are you positioned for more BTC dominance or betting on an alt rotation? ๐Ÿค” Drop your thoughts below ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Market Update: BTC Dominance, and ETH Outlook ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿšจ Week Ahead Analysis - Extreme Conditions Ahead ๐Ÿšจ
Quick Summary ๐Ÿ“‹ Markets are painting warning signs in neon, but the Fed tailwind keeps us flying. Here's what you need to know for the week ahead and September close. ๐Ÿ”ฅ THE CURRENT SETUP: Retail Mania Meets Wall Street Reality We're witnessing something special (and potentially dangerous) right now: ๐ŸŽฏ Retail Army on Fire: โ†’ 10 straight green days with +13% gains in retail favorites โ†’ Largest weekly retail inflows since December 2024 โ†’ Morgan Stanley says "Retail Army still has much more fire power" ๐Ÿš€ โš ๏ธ Technical Alarm Bells: โ†’ S&P 500 RSI near 70 (extreme overbought territory) โ†’ TMT momentum basket RSI at 85 (highest in 5-10 years!) ๐Ÿ”ด โ†’ SPX has been above RSI 45 for 102 days straight - historically, markets were ALWAYS lower 2 weeks later ๐Ÿ“Š WHAT THE SMART MONEY IS SAYING Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley & BofA are all flashing the same signals: โœ… The Good News: โ†’ Fed cutting cycle = historically bullish (median +8% in 6 months, +15% in 12 months) ๐Ÿ“ˆ โ†’ Tech (+22%) and Consumer Discretionary (+18%) are the historical winners โ†’ Liquidity is dominating fundamentals right now ๐Ÿ’ง ๐Ÿšจ The Warning Signs: โ†’ AI positioning crowding at "9 out of 10" levels โ†’ Leverage at 100th percentile (highest in years) ๐Ÿ“Š โ†’ 87% of global indices above moving averages (BofA's sell signal triggers at >88%) โ†’ Strong parallels to 2000 dot-com bubble conditions ๐Ÿซง ๐ŸŽฏ SECTOR WINNERS & LOSERS ๐Ÿš€ EXPANDING (Where to focus): โ†’ Technology & AI (the obvious winner) ๐Ÿค– โ†’ Healthcare & Services ๐Ÿฅ โ†’ Defense & Security ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ โ›” UNDER STRESS (Avoid for now): โ†’ Freight & Transportation ๐Ÿš› โ†’ Automotive ๐Ÿš— โ†’ Housing & Chemicals ๐Ÿ  โ†’ Anything cyclical and rate-sensitive ๐Ÿ“… WEEK AHEAD CATALYSTS (Sept 22 Focus) Key Dates to Watch: โ†’ TODAY (Sept 22): "Sell Rosh Hashanah" seasonal pattern begins ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ โ†’ Oct 1: Yom Kippur (historical turning point) โ†’ October: Most volatile month historically (but institutions selling options to suppress vol) What Could Trigger Moves: โ†’ Post-options expiry reversions
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Welcome to DeFi U!
Hello everyone and welcome. As we begin building out DeFi University together, please know that any ideas you may have for a new tool, a new live call, a new course, anything that you'd like to build or incorporate in to add more value for us, the community members, that is 100% a yes here. This community is AI first, which simply means that we learn together how to use AI tools to build what will generate more value for us, the community members. We hope to foster an environment of learning and growth in many different areas of life within our DeFi University community, and now with these new AI tools any suggestion that any member has which will add value can quickly be built out and incorporated in. It's a very exciting and transformative time that we live in. To foster a sense of community spirit, please introduce yourself in the general chat as you join, and share a bit about yourself so that we can all get to know one another better. Live calls in the community take place every day Monday through Friday and they are open to all members. See you on the next live call and in the DeFi U chats! -David
Goldilocks scenario ? whats that ??
Based on today's economic data releases, here are the key market data points that were released today (September 26, 2025): Personal Income (Month-over-Month) Personal income increased 0.4% for the month, which was 0.1 percentage point above estimates. This is a positive sign for the economy. Other Major Data Points Released Today: 1. PCE Inflation (Core): The core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month - this was in line with expectations. 2. Headline PCE Inflation: The personal consumption expenditures price index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%. 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures: Personal consumption expenditures accelerated at a 0.6% pace, which was also 0.1 percentage point above estimates. Assessment - Good or Bad: This data is generally positive for the economy: Personal income growth beating expectations suggests healthy wage growth and consumer financial health Consumer spending exceeding forecasts indicates economic resilience and consumer confidence Inflation remaining stable at expected levels means the Fed's policies are working without derailing growth All of the numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast, showing economic predictability The data supports the Fed's current monetary policy path, as the readings are unlikely to change course for policymakers who last week indicated they see two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year. Overall, this represents a "Goldilocks" scenario - growth without runaway inflation. GOLDILOCKS !! "Just Right" Economic Growth: The economy is growing at a steady, sustainable pace Not growing so fast that it causes overheating and inflation Not growing so slowly that it leads to recession or high unemployment "Just Right" Inflation: Inflation is moderate and predictable (around the Fed's 2% target) Not so high that it erodes purchasing power and requires aggressive rate hikes
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Whitehouse News and GENIUS Act.
1. GENIUS Act Signing: President Donald Trump has signed the GENIUS Act into law, aiming to lead the global digital currency revolution, prioritize consumer protection, strengthen the U.S. dollarโ€™s reserve currency status, and bolster national security in the digital market. The act includes regulations for stablecoins, reserve requirements, alignment of state and federal frameworks, and combatting illicit activity in digital assets. 2. Expanding Crypto Empire: The Trump family is expanding their cryptocurrency empire with plans for a digital asset treasury company called Trump Media Group CRO Strategy in partnership with Crypto.com. This expansion aligns with efforts to position the United States as a global leader in cryptocurrency. 3. "Crypto Week" Announcement: The House of Representatives announced the week of July 14th as "Crypto Week." During this time, the House plans to consider key legislation related to digital assets, including the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate's GENIUS Act. These legislative efforts aim to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets to make America the crypto capital of the world. These developments indicate a significant focus on digital assets and cryptocurrency within the Trump administration, with efforts to promote innovation, consumer protection, and the leadership of the United States in the digital assets market. Stay tuned for further updates and announcements related to these initiatives. text of the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) that was passed by Congress on July 18, 2025. The full text of the bill is quite detailed, but here is a summary of key points based on the provided information: 1. Short Title: The Act is named the "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act" or the GENIUS Act. 2. Purpose: The Act is designed to provide for the regulation of payment stablecoins and includes provisions for other purposes related to digital assets. 3. Definitions: The Act includes definitions for terms such as Bank Secrecy Act, Board (referring to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), Comptroller (referring to the Comptroller of the Currency), Comptroller-regulated entity, Corporation (referring to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), digital asset, distributed ledger, Federal qualified nonbank payment stablecoin issuer, institution-affiliated party, and insured depository institution. 4. Regulation: The Act aims to regulate payment stablecoins issued by nonbank entities, establish certifications for payment stablecoin issuers, and provide oversight by primary Federal payment stablecoin regulators. 5. Digital Assets: The Act addresses digital representations of value recorded on cryptographically-secured distributed ledgers and the use of technology to maintain the integrity of public ledgers. 6. Stability and Security: The Act includes measures to ensure the stability and security of payment stablecoins, as well as to regulate and supervise Comptroller-regulated entities.
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