I did a deep dive on Target. I hope this can add value to those who own or interested in Target. Is a Target a buy here ? Or are we catching a falling knife ? Is the new CEO Michael Fiddelke in February 2026 going to reignite the Revenue and EPS growth going forward? Stock : __Target _____ ticker : __TGT Does TARGET has a strong economic MOAT ? No Do I understand the business? Retailer sell merchandise via 2000 stores (80.4% revenue) and digital channels (19.6%). Products lines: everyday essentials (food&confection), HBA, clothing, household items and differentiated discounted prices. Most of its stores are larger than 170,000 square feet. Its digital channels at Target.com also offering sale and revenue. Competitors: Many !! ie Costco, Walmart, Amazon, etc and many clothing retailers Company History and Leadership: Brian Connel (current chair&CEO) leaving position, Michael Fiddelke set to take over as new CEO on on February 1, 2026. Michael F ( cfo, coo >20yrs in company experience)- goal to drive top line performance and stop the decline is yet to be seen.Target has experienced mixed financial results in early 2025, including a sales decrease and stock volatility. The leadership has also encountered criticism and boycotts related to diversity and inclusion initiatives. >400,000 employees. Target's financial performance has recently declined, with falling sales, lower operating income, and decreased comparable sales in its second quarter of fiscal year 2025 compared to the previous year. The company is facing challenges such as lower store traffic, inventory issues, and a customer backlash that began in late 2021, leading to a significant drop in its stock price and a stagnation of annual revenue for the past four years. In 2023 9 stores closed due theft. Retail shrink is high. How are their fundamentals? · Market cap: 40.05Billions compares other peers ie Walmart 815.86B, · Revenue: 104.65B Revenue Growth rate 2% - forecast to grow slower than US market of 9.7%

APA is yet another energy company. It is one of those that had screwed up and trying to turn things around. It is getting better. I've been holding CIVI and PR and now added APA.

In this series, I would like to focus on the best strategies for playing earnings. My goal is to provide you with safe strategies so risk management is essential. - Risk Management: Don't risk more than 1% of your capital on each earnings trade. Initially even paper trade these till you become confident. - Expected Move (EM) vs Actual Move (AM): If you add the ATM call and put prices, it gives you the expected move. For earnings calculating the expected move tells us how much the stock can move either side post earnings. But for earnings usually the actual moves are lower than the expected moves which is what we want to take advantage of - Stock Selection: You can goto a paid website like market chameleon or any others where they list the stocks EM vs AM history. Use this data to pick the stocks where historically the AM stayed under EM 70% of the time or higher. Pick stocks with good liquidity and enough history. - Strategy 1: On the day of earnings (15 min before market close), Sell a ATM call and ATM put and buy far OTM (say 5 delta) call and put. Close this 10-15 mins after market opens next day - Strategy 2: A much safer strategy. Sell call and put at 2 times EM. Say the EM says stock will move by 5%, then sell a call and put at 10% OTM. Then buy even farther out call and put. This will create a very safe Iron Condor. Close this 10-15 mins after market opens next day - Strategy 3: Safest strategy. See the stock's historical maximum single day drop percent and max single day increase %. Use these and sell call and put beyond these percent drops. Then buy even farther out call and put. This will create the safest Iron Condor. Close this 10-15 mins after market opens next day Feel free to ask me if you have any questions.

The single most valuable thing to understand about economic events is not any single data point, but the framework of how they influence market expectations and, consequently, asset prices. Markets are forward-looking discounting mechanisms. This means they are constantly trying to price in the future state of the economy. An economic event is a piece of evidence that either confirms or challenges those future expectations. Here is a valuable framework to analyze any economic event: 1. The Trinity of Impact: Actual vs. Forecast vs. Previous The raw number itself is often less important than how it compares to what was anticipated. - Actual: The released figure (e.g., CPI inflation is 3.1%). - Forecast (Consensus): The median number that economists and analysts were expecting (e.g., they forecast 2.9%). - Previous: The figure from the prior period (e.g., last month was 3.0%). The Market Reaction Rule: The market's immediate reaction is driven by the deviation of the Actual from the Forecast. - Actual > Forecast: This is a "hot" or strong number. Typically bullish for the domestic currency, often bearish for bonds (yields rise), and can be bearish for stocks if it implies higher interest rates for longer. - Actual < Forecast: This is a "cold" or weak number. Typically bearish for the currency, bullish for bonds (yields fall), and can be bullish for stocks if it implies potential rate cuts. Example: If the US reports stunningly strong jobs data (Actual >> Forecast), the market infers: "The economy is running hot → The Federal Reserve will need to keep rates higher for longer to fight inflation → This attracts foreign investment into USD assets → The US Dollar strengthens." 2. Key Economic Event Categories & What They Measure Inflation - Key Examples: CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) - Measures: The rate of price increases for a basket of common goods and services. - Why it Matters: It is the primary driver of central bank interest rate policy. High inflation typically leads to tighter policy (higher rates).