Free Content Below! Sentiment Off the Floor, Rates Still Falling. Here's What It Means.
The University of Michigan's final April consumer sentiment reading came in at 49.8 — still the lowest in the survey's 74-year history, but up from the record-low preliminary reading of 47.6, showing that sentiment is responsive to good news rather than locked in permanent pessimism. The MBA's chief economist directly attributed declining mortgage rates this week to the Middle East ceasefire and falling oil prices, meaning both sentiment and rates are now moving in the same direction simultaneously for the first time since the war began. Supporting data from this week rounds out the picture: pending home sales rose 1.5% in March per NAR, Coldwell Banker's 727-agent survey confirmed 80% of buyers are actively purchasing now, and 1 in 3 sellers are listing despite holding sub-5% rates. Historically, every major housing market recovery of the last 30 years began before conditions felt good — buyers who waited for certainty in 2012 and 2019 missed the entry point entirely. The signal isn't a recovery yet — but five data points are now pointing the same direction at the same time, and that's worth paying attention to.
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John
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Free Content Below! Sentiment Off the Floor, Rates Still Falling. Here's What It Means.
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