The Ceasefire Just Got Extended. Here's What That Means for the Market.
The Iran ceasefire, originally set to expire today, has been extended indefinitely β and that's the most significant positive shift in the housing market backdrop since the war began on February 28th. The ceasefire extension drove Treasury yields lower, and nationally reported mortgage rates have now declined for six consecutive days. Meanwhile, Zillow's April forecast shows buyer demand running 32% above last year, NAR confirmed pending home sales rose 1.5% in March despite climbing rates, and housing affordability has improved for eight consecutive months. The buyers who have been frozen by uncertainty now have real reason to move β improving rates, motivated sellers, elevated inventory, and peak builder incentives are all true at the same time. Three data points this week β UMich Consumer Sentiment Thursday, PCE inflation Saturday, and the Fed meeting April 28β29 β will confirm whether this shift is durable. Have a great one, everybody. The number of you actively watching these updates β I don't take that for granted. I truly appreciate you!