June inflation cooled to 3.5%, down a full point from May's three-year high of 4.2%, as oil prices retreat following the Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed's June meeting minutes reveal officials are genuinely split on further rate hikes, not the unanimous hawkish stance markets had priced in. Mortgage rates remain elevated near a one-month high today, but since rates lag inflation by weeks to months, this reversal is the first real signal the rate climb may be topping out. A second month of cooling data in July's CPI report (due mid-August) could meaningfully shift the Fed toward patience — though most economists still expect rates to stay above 6% through the rest of 2026.

Home prices just hit an all-time high — $440,600 in June, the 36th straight month of year-over-year gains — even as existing home sales dipped 2.4% to 4.09 million annualized, per NAR. Per Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, affordability is actually improving despite the record price, because wage growth is outpacing home price growth, with over half a million jobs added so far this year underpinning demand. The bigger story is who's buying: per ICE Mortgage Technology, Gen Z hit a record 20% of purchase rate locks in Q2, nearly a third of all first-time homebuyer loans, with 29% of all 2026 down payments coming from family gifts, loans, or retirement withdrawals — the highest share in seven years. Gen Z and millennials now make up nearly two-thirds of the entire purchase lending market; the generational handoff isn't coming, it's already here. Rates ticked up this week as Iran tensions resurfaced, per Mortgage News Daily, but remain lower than a year ago per Freddie Mac.

Agents Just Called It. The Market Is Balancing. The market found its equilibrium this week. Per CNBC's Housing Market Survey, agents are now reporting a balanced market for the first time this year — no longer tilted toward buyers or sellers — a shift that lines up with Redfin's data showing the buyer advantage that built all spring started narrowing last month. Consumer sentiment is still fragile (University of Michigan's final June reading came in at 49.5, a third straight monthly decline) but it's climbed 4.7 points off May's 74-year record low. Rates ticked up slightly this week per Freddie Mac, though they remain lower than a year ago, and Treasury yields are easing this morning as markets absorb the Iran situation. For agents, the message is simple: sellers need to price right from day one, and buyers who move now can negotiate from reality instead of desperation — before sentiment fully recovers and bidding wars return.

I was gone for the weekend so here are some coming updates. Enjoy. Have a good one! -John Buyers didn't wait for the headlines to feel better. Per MBA, purchase applications for the week ending July 3rd came in 5% above the same week last year — the third straight month buyers have outpaced 2025, even through a holiday week, an Iran escalation, and rising rates. VA purchase applications jumped 5% and refis are running 8% ahead of last year, while jobless claims (215K) beat expectations for a second week and Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%. Yes, oil surged and yields hit a one-month high after Iran struck 85 U.S. military sites — rates are under real pressure and expected to stay above 6% through the rest of 2026. But they're still lower than a year ago, 826,000 unsold homes have brought inventory back to pre-pandemic levels, and the buyers signing right now, in the middle of all this noise, are the ones who won't regret their timing.

Iran struck three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight — including a Qatari LNG tanker — triggering U.S. strikes on 80+ Iranian sites and an immediate revocation of the Iranian oil waiver granted just 48 hours earlier. Brent crude jumped 3.3% to $76.54 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-month high of 4.56%, reversing some of the recent rate improvement. Housing fundamentals remain unchanged — 826,000 unsold homes and near-record spring seller concessions — so the case for buyers to act hasn't gone away, but the timeline for further rate relief just got less certain.