Rates Are Dropping. Here's What's Next.
Here's your summary of today's script: Freddie Mac's latest survey shows nationally reported 30-year fixed rates fell for the second straight week to a four-week low and are more than half a percentage point below last year — roughly $120/month in savings on a $400K home with 20% down. Fannie Mae's April Housing Forecast (released this morning) now projects rates staying in the low-to-mid 6% range through 2026, gradually improving toward 6.1%, with home prices rising 3.4% in Q2, 3.8% in Q3, and 3.2% in Q4. That combination — higher-than-expected prices alongside stickier-than-expected rates — is a textbook affordability squeeze, making waiting a costly decision rather than a neutral one. The broader week showed slowing sales and cautious builders, but prices aren't falling and rates aren't spiking — buyers who move now are meeting motivated sellers, peak incentives, and year-over-year rate improvement. Next week's data to watch: NAR Pending Home Sales (Mon), Michigan sentiment final (Thu), PCE inflation (Sat), and the Fed meeting April 28–29.