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The multifamily market is cracking open and most people won't be ready.
For the last two years, owners have been holding on by their fingernails. Bridge debt coming due. Rate caps expiring. Refis that don't pencil. Insurance and taxes eating margins alive. They've been extending and pretending. That window is closing. I'm seeing it in real time. Deals coming back to market. Sellers who wouldn't return a call in 2021 suddenly getting realistic. Lenders quietly pushing notes. The owners who bought at the top can't hold on any longer. Now, let me be straight with you: it's still hard to find deals. This isn't 2010 where everything was on sale. You have to dig, underwrite hard, and be patient. But here's the thing. The people who win in the next cycle are educating themselves right now. Learning to underwrite. Learning debt structures. Learning what a real deal looks like versus a trap. Because when the opportunity shows up, and it will, you don't get time to learn. You either know how to move, or you watch someone else take it. The market doesn't wait for you to get ready. Start now.
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How NOT to Sound Like an Idiot - Series
Go to Classroom area to check it out. I will be adding more an more episodes in the series. https://www.skool.com/multifamily/classroom/1987cf64
Assessing Risk
Hey all, hope everyone is having a good week! Looking through the posts here and based off my other posts, I wanted to touch on how AI could help with assessing risk. This could be done by analyzing the property underwriting, running different scenarios, and generating a risk summary. The process would be as follows: 1. Upload the property's underwriting to an LLM 2. Test a bunch of different scenarios like increasing interest rates, decrease in occupancy, rents not meeting projections, and increase in expenses (not an exhaustive list). These can be written in an Excel or Google sheet and uploaded alongside the underwriting 3. Prompt the LLM: "You are a helpful real estate deal analyzer. Analyze this property's underwriting and test all the scenarios in the spreadsheet provided. Use the information provided and do not make up additional scenarios. Identify which assumptions have the biggest impact on the deal. Create a risk summary document that I can use to evaluate overall risk of the deal." Truthfully, this should be used as a tool to evaluate risk and definitely should not replace your professional judgement. I've included a visual below for your convenience. Hope everyone finds this useful!
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Assessing Risk
Apartments hit the brakes
Thought this was bad news…. Fewer multifamily projects breaking ground could eventually ease the supply pressure facing new acquisitions and existing apartment owners. But with high borrowing costs are also constraining demand and development, the near-term picture remains a balancing act. Be careful out there, you got this!
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All things Multifamily, otherwise known as Apartment Buildings: investing, managing, owning, financing, raising capital, partnerships, legal, debt.
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