Independent Kurdistan: A potential Israeli and Post-Theocracy Iranian ally?

A fully independent or confederally united Kurdistan is no longer a distant dream, but its realisation now hinges on two transformative regional shifts: the fall of Iran’s Islamist theocracy and the emergence of Israel as an open, decisive Kurdish ally.

Should the Islamic Republic collapse and be replaced by a secular, liberal-democratic, and federally restructured Iran, Tehran would instantly cease being one of the Kurds’ four jailers. Ten to twelve million Iranian Kurds would gain genuine cultural, linguistic, and political rights overnight, along with control over their own security forces and a fair share of local resources. A democratic Iran would also lose all interest in propping up anti-Kurdish governments in Baghdad and Damascus; the Iran-backed militias that terrorise Iraqi Kurdistan and the logistical support that once reached Assad’s regime would dry up. Most importantly, a federal Iran could eventually enter a voluntary confederation with an independent Kurdistan, creating a vast, resource-rich, and democratically governed Kurdish-Iranian economic and security space stretching from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

Israel, for its part, is uniquely positioned to turn this possibility into reality. Jerusalem already quietly supplies the Peshmerga and SDF with weapons, training, and intelligence, but a bolder policy is now feasible and necessary. By becoming the first country to grant formal diplomatic recognition to a sovereign Kurdistan (or at least to the KRG as a state), Israel would shatter the international taboo and make military aggression against the Kurds far costlier. Public Israeli air-defence early-warning systems, drone exports, and satellite intelligence could neutralise Turkey’s air superiority over Rojava and the KRG. Reviving and expanding the clandestine Kurdish-oil-to-Israel route would give Kurdistan an economic lifeline independent of hostile neighbours. Most crucially, Israel’s unmatched influence in Washington could push through binding U.S. security guarantees and legislation that finally treat the Kurds as strategic allies rather than disposable partners.

Together, a post-theocratic federal Iran and an openly pro-Kurdish Israel could sponsor a new Middle Eastern geopolitical bloc—Israel, Kurdistan, democratic Iran, and Azerbaijan—that would encircle Turkey’s ambitions, isolate Sunni jihadism, and offer the Kurds permanent great-power protection. With these two alignments in place, the odds of a free, viable, and recognised Kurdistan within the next fifteen to twenty-five years rise from the current 30–50 % to something far closer to inevitability. The Kurds would no longer be a stateless people caught between collapsing empires; they would become the linchpin of a new, democratic, and stable regional order.

9 comments