Here is something I wrote a few months ago. The numbers have changed slightly since but if you swap out the numbers and do the math, they still don’t add up to any objective evidence for a genocide.
The other criteria for genocide under the terms of the Geneva convention requires evidence of intent. Given the historic increase in the population of Gaza plus the use of Hamas’ own people as human shields during this war means that using Hamas’ own numbers which fail to disaggregate terrorists and men of fighting age, still leads to the obvious conclusion that Israeli policy has gone to extraordinary lengths to avoid a genocide.
I’m aware that most of the people in this community are aware that there is no evidence of a genocide, as tragic as the war is and as devastating. However, I think I made the argument well. So I’m posting here to help in answering those who continue to use this blood libel against Israel. In other forums where I’ve posted this argument, I also pointed out that the use of the term “genocide” against Israel when even the figures given by Hamas (who obviously have a motive for inflating their figures), do not objectively support the accusation clearly has only one purpose. The goal is to raise the emotive tone of the debate. The result of this and other similar accusations has been a major contributor to the rise of violent antisemitism worldwide and is another example of how those with a jihardist goal rally support for a false narrative by invoking emotional language that hijacks the rational brains of well-intended but ignorant people.
Article copied below…
Is it a genocide? How can we know what’s true? I’m going to ask you to reserve judgment and read to the end. Let’s examine the evidence together.
I understand how it can be hard to work out the difference between what’s true and what’s not. Information is unreliable. There is so much back and forth; he said, she said. Who to trust? How to know? Do you just throw a dart and go with that? Do you go with the story that SEEMS likely, as unpalatable as it may be?
If you found out that one side was lying about a fundamental issue, would you be able to trust the rest of what they tell you? I’m going to try to give you a set of facts we can hopefully agree on about one particular story. If those facts take you where I think they logically will, I’m going to ask you to reconsider other information you’ve been given. Let’s go. Yalla!
The popular story is that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza. Let’s begin by looking at genocides that most people would agree are genocides.
During the early twentieth century, Armenia formed part of the Ottoman Empire with a population of around 1.5 million people, mostly Christians. These people were heavily oppressed by their Ottoman overlords and from Spring 1915 to Autumn 1916 between 664,000 and 1.2 million were slaughtered. A conservative estimate suggests that the population was reduced by over 60% within 9 months by the Turks who feared that the Armenians would join the Allies at the beginning of WWI.
The term “genocide” was coined by Raphael Lemkin, a lawyer who pushed the term in the United Nations as a way to understand intentional mass murder with the goal of one group deliberately trying to eradicate another. He referred to the Armenian genocide as ”…the first genocide of the twentieth century”. Thanks to his work, the term was officially used when the UN Genocide Convention of 1948 was framed, tabled and adopted in response to the Holocaust.
The nazi Holocaust conservatively reduced the world population of Jews by more than 50%. Although 6 million Jews were officially recognised as slaughtered across Europe through work camps, death squads and gas chambers, estimates of world Jewry prior to WWII suggest a total population of up to 15 million. At the end of the war, approximately 6 million Jews survived. The depth of the massacre was so profound that the world Jewish population is only now approaching the pre-war estimate of 15 million after 80 years.
Hamas claims 68,000 Gazans have been killed in the past two years since they invaded Israel on Oct 7th. It’s a horrible statistic. It’s a genuine tragedy. There is no joy to be found in the death of 68,000 people due to war and the thought of women and children killed as collateral damage is an irrefutable cause for grief. But is it a genocide? Is it a sign of deliberate intention to kill civilians and eradicate an entire group of people?
Hamas claims, through statistics provided by the Gazan Health Ministry, 68,000 casualties of war. They do not break this figure down. They do not offer figures for people who have died of natural causes, illness or old age. They give lists of names with many duplicates. They do not separate civilians from combatants. They simply state that there are 68,000 people who have died since the start of the war and claim them all as casualties of war.
I’ll tell you what. I’m not going to quibble with them. I’m not going to engage in a he said/ she said argument that leaves you trying to decide who to believe. I’m going to accept their number. I’m not going to point out that this figure cannot possibly represent 68,000 women, children and non-combatants. I’m going to go with 68,000 innocent casualties of war and I’m going to grieve over them together with every caring human being. But is it a genocide?
At Oct 7th, 2023 before any IDF soldier had set foot in Gaza and before a single bomb had been dropped, the population of Gaza was 2.1 million. In two years of intense war, the death count offered by Hamas is 68,000. This equates to less than 4% of the population if we accept that no Hamas combatants are included in their own statistics.
Genocide?
More than 60% of the population of Armenia.
More than 50% of world Jewry.
Less than 4% Gazans.
It took around 44 years for the Armenian population to recover (from 1916 to 1960)
It took 80 years for world Jewry to recover (from 1945 to the present)
How long will it take Gaza to recover?
The Save the Children Fund states on their website that an average of 130 babies are born in Gaza every day. In two years of war this amounts to more than 93,000 children.
While it is a sad fact that not every child survives birth, it still means that the population of Gaza has GROWN since the start of the war. No genocide in history has ever resulted in the net growth of a population.
Is the Israeli Defence Force so inept that they would fail this badly at genocide if that is their intention? Indeed, the fact that the population of Gaza has GROWN during this war is an indication that the IDF is taking exceptional care NOT to kill civilians; not to reduce the population.
Over the years, many terms have been thrown at Israel; terms such as “apartheid”, “ethnic cleansing”, “war crimes” and “genocide”. These are highly emotive words. No compassionate, caring person can hear these words and not feel pain. These words fill our brains and hijack our emotions. What is the point of throwing these terms at Israelis… and by extension, Jews and the Jews who support Israel?
The point is that these terms arouse intense emotions. When thrown at people justly or unjustly, they create revulsion and anger. Even, murderous rage.
And that is the point. And that is what the world is being whipped up into. Murderous rage against Israel and the Jews. Murderous rage over lies. And if you can see by looking at this argument, that the accusation of genocide being levelled against Israel has no basis in logical objective fact, then look around at the rage and violence that is being unleashed against Israel and the Jews worldwide over something that is clearly untrue and ask yourself where else emotive language might be being used to falsely demonise Israel and by extension Jews.