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The biggest mistake i see futures traders making
When I first started algotrading futures I'd watch my algos And I noticed that they'd trade about 5 times a week But sometimes algos would buy at the top, and go short at the bottom. I'd think to myself: "Man, these algos get in at the EXACT wrong time. I can trade better than THAT." So I'd load up a chart on the side, and when I saw an algo take a bad trade... I'd reverse the position. "wow I just avoided a -$1k loss by overriding the algos." I kept at it, glued to the screen for hours every day. Scalping little wins here and there. +$50, +$100 per win I kept my losses small, and as soon as I saw money on the table...I'd take it. "I'll never go broke by taking profits" I'd say to myself. This scalping style of trading was so time consuming though. I'd be out and about, and instead of being present with my friends and family...I'd be checking the markets on my phone. But by the end of the week, my 20+ hours of work had paid off. I had out performed the algos by +$2k! At 40 hours a week, thats $16k/mo! I can be a full time trader! I continued at this for months, but after 6 months of grinding away...I noticed that for some reason My account wasn't growing as fast as if I had just left the algos alone. But then I looked at the commissions & fees... My trade count: 6677 Algos trade count: 50 At $3 commission per trade, I had lost -$20k in FEES ALONE. My stomach dropped like a stone. All that hard work, 1000s of hours I sacrificed. All to just break even. No, actually I lost money because the algos were up on the year had I left them alone. I was kicking myself. How could I be so stupid. You see, scalping made sense to me when I was working as an employee in corporate America. I was used to a steady paycheck biweekly. But trading doesn't work this way. Its simple statistics. Most of the returns come from outlier days. I was seduced by the high win rates of scalping. But in reality, scalping strategies cost 100x more in fees. The win rate was a vanity metric, I didn't care about have a high win rate anymore..
No Orders
Anyone else not have any orders since Market open last night?
No Orders
If i had to start over from scratch in futures trading, i’d do this
Pick 1 of each - Broker: Tradestation - Market: ES - Direction: Long - Timeframe: 1440min - Indicator: ATR Back test across 10+ years of data. Make sure avg trade w/ fees > $100 Entry: 2-5 indicators Exit: Stop Loss, Profit Target, Hold Time 1. Tradestation because it comes with decades of free, accurate time bar data. 2. ES because its the most liquid market, and least punishing from a slippage perspective 3. Direction long because this has been the macro trend of ES 4. Timeframe 1440min because this basically daily bars, which will provide a large enough sample size for statistical significance (667+). And less competitive than lower timeframes. 5. Indicator ATR because volatility is inversely correlated to trend.
Next time you're in a drawdown...
Expect to have -20%/yr drawdowns. If you want to make +20%/yr returns. This guy on X is down -$16M (-22%) from ATH on his $73M portfolio
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Next time you're in a drawdown...
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