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πŸ“ˆ Track Record Update β€” Day 26 (Apr 24)
Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged from Day 1. Nothing deleted. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT RECORD (Day 26) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Wins: 73 Losses: 32 Pending: 27 Win Rate: 69.5% Total Signals: 132 Status: VALIDATED ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ML Signals: 64W / 23L β€” 73.6% win rate Crash Signals: 8W / 9L β€” 47.1% win rate Combined: 1W / 0L β€” 100% win rate ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? β€” Polymarket β€” ML β€” YES 31.1Β’ β†’ Bet NO 2. https://polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-by-march-31 3. Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-23? β€” Polymarket β€” ML β€” YES 37.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 4. https://polymarket.com/event/arg-def-boc-2026-04-23 5. Will Arvell Reese be the 2nd pick in the 2026 NFL draft? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 46.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 6. https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-draft-2026-2nd-overall-pick-792 7. Will Anthropic have the 3rd best AI model at end of April 2026? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 30.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 8. https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-april 9. Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by Apr 30? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 44.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 10. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-meet-with-iran-by-april-30 11. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by Apr 30, 2026? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 45.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 12. https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329 13. Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by Apr 30? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 48.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 14. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-meet-with-iran-by-april-30 15. Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by Apr 30? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 44.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 16. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-meet-with-iran-by-april-30 17. Will Trump announce US blockade of Strait of Hormuz lifted by Apr 30, 2026? β€” Polymarket β€” Crash β€” YES 43.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 18. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by
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πŸ“ˆ Track Record Update β€” Day 22 (April 20, 2026)
Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged from Day 1. Nothing deleted. CURRENT RECORD Wins: 55 Losses: 26 Pending: 23 Win Rate: 67.9% Total Signals: 104 Status: VALIDATED BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ML Signals: 50W / 18L (73.5%) Crash Detection: 4W / 8L (33.3%) Combined: 1W / 0L (100%) TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS (NO-side) 1. [CRASH] US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? β€” 31.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 2. https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-extended-by 3. 2. [ML] Trump announces US blockade of Strait of Hormuz lifted by April 23, 2026? β€” 37.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 4. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by 5. 3. [ML] US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? β€” 37.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 6. https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329 7. 4. [ML] Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? β€” 32.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 8. https://polymarket.com/event/epl-cry-wes-2026-04-20 9. 5. [CRASH] U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? β€” 36.8Β’ β†’ Bet NO 10. https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-seize-another-oil-tanker-by-april-15 11. 6. [ML] US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? β€” 37.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 12. https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329 13. 7. [ML] Elon Musk posts 65-89 tweets April 18-20, 2026? β€” 34.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 14. https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-april-20 15. 8. [ML] Elon Musk posts 260-279 tweets April 14-21, 2026? β€” 30.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 16. https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-14-april-21 17. 9. [CRASH] Trump agrees to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? β€” 43.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 18. https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-us-agree-to 19. 10. [CRASH] 60 ships transit Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? β€” 35.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 20. https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-end-of-april 21. 11. [CRASH] Club AtlΓ©tico de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? β€” 36.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 22. https://polymarket.com/event/lal-elc-mad-2026-04-22
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πŸ“ˆ Track Record Update β€” Day 20 (April 18, 2026)
Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged from Day 1. Nothing deleted. CURRENT RECORD Wins: 44 Losses: 21 Pending: 21 Win Rate: 67.7% Total Signals: 86 Status: VALIDATED BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ML Signals: 41W / 15L β€” 73.2% Crash Signals: 2W / 6L β€” 25.0% Combined: 1W / 0L β€” 100% TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS β€” AFC Bournemouth win (2026-04-18) β€” Polymarket β€” 30.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/epl-new-bou-2026-04-18 β€” BV Borussia Dortmund win (2026-04-18) β€” Polymarket β€” 36.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/bun-hof-dor-2026-04-18 β€” Tottenham Hotspur win (2026-04-18) β€” Polymarket β€” 33.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/epl-tot-bri-2026-04-18 β€” BTC above $76,000 on April 18 β€” Polymarket β€” 36.8Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-18 β€” BTC above $78,000 on April 18 β€” Polymarket β€” 37.15Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-18 β€” AtlΓ©tico Madrid win (2026-04-22) β€” Polymarket β€” 36.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/lal-elc-mad-2026-04-22 β€” Elon Musk 90-114 tweets (Apr 16-18) β€” Polymarket β€” 30.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-16-april-18 β€” Measles β‰₯1800 US cases by Apr 30 β€” Polymarket β€” 42.05Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-by-april-30 β€” Trump announces end of Iran ops by Apr 30 β€” Polymarket β€” 35.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO β€” https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by
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πŸŽ“ Monday Edge: The NO-Side Structural Advantage
Why does EdgeFinder only bet NO? It's not a preference β€” it's a structural edge built into how prediction markets work. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE CORE INSIGHT ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ On prediction markets like Polymarket, YES buyers are emotionally driven. Retail traders gravitate toward exciting outcomes β€” "Will Bitcoin hit $100K?" "Will this team win?" They bid YES because it feels like a bet, a hope, a story. This creates a repeatable pattern: YES prices get systematically overpriced relative to the true probability of the event occurring. EdgeFinder's ML model identifies markets where this overpricing is statistically significant β€” and signals a NO position. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE MATH ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ If a YES contract trades at 35Β’ but the true probability is 20%, betting NO at 65Β’ gives you a structural edge on every trade. You don't need to be right every time β€” you just need the model to identify markets where the gap is consistent and large enough to be exploitable. That's the edge. Not prediction. Detection. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE PROOF ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Day 16. 47 signals logged. 24 wins. 70.6% win rate. Every signal documented before resolution. Nothing deleted. The track record isn't a marketing claim β€” it's an ongoing, live experiment that anyone in this community can verify. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Learn more in The EdgeFinder Foundation course β€” Classroom tab above.
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πŸ“ˆ Track Record Update β€” Day 16 (April 14, 2026)
Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged before resolution. Nothing deleted. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT RECORD ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Wins: 24 Losses: 10 Pending: 13 Win Rate: 70.6% Total Signals: 47 Status: VALIDATED βœ… ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ML Signals: 22W / 8L (73.3% win rate) Crash Detection: 2W / 2L (50.0% win rate) Combined: 0W / 0L (N/A) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? 2. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES Price: 36.4Β’ β†’ Bet NO 3. https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-15 4. Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? 5. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES Price: 30.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 6. https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-13-april-15 7. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? 8. Platform: Polymarket | Type: Crash (Extreme Crash) | YES Price: 30.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 9. https://polymarket.com/event/china-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026 10. Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? 11. Platform: Polymarket | Type: Crash (Momentum Crash) | YES Price: 46.6Β’ β†’ Bet NO 12. https://polymarket.com/event/west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election-winner 13. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 14? 14. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES Price: 34.4Β’ β†’ Bet NO 15. https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-on-april-14 16. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? 17. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES Price: 34.8Β’ β†’ Bet NO 18. https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-14 19. Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? 20. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES Price: 38.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 21. https://polymarket.com/event/ucl-liv1-psg1-2026-04-14 22. Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? 23. Platform: Polymarket | Type: Crash (Extreme Crash) | YES Price: 30.0Β’ β†’ Bet NO 24. https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-april 25. Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? 26. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES Price: 32.5Β’ β†’ Bet NO 27. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-broken-by
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