New lesson just dropped in the Classroom tab. Topic: How Political Markets Behave vs Sports Markets What you'll learn: — Political markets systematically compress toward 50% — creating NO-side value on overpriced longshots — Sports markets are better calibrated but vulnerable to Momentum Crashes EdgeFinder detects — The same signal logic does not apply equally to both market types — the model is category-aware This distinction is critical for NO-side traders right now: today's signal list includes 5 Hungary election markets (political) and 8 sports markets simultaneously. Knowing how each behaves changes how you read the signal. Full lesson in the Classroom tab above. Track record and live signals: edgefinderai.org/gate

EdgeFinder tracks 6 prediction market platforms. Each one is different. Here's how to think about them. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE PLATFORMS 🔵 POLYMARKET The largest by volume. USDC-settled. US traders restricted. Most liquid for sports, politics, and macro. This is where most EdgeFinder signals resolve. 🟡 KALSHI US-regulated and legal for American traders. Lower liquidity than Polymarket but growing fast. Good for economic data markets (CPI, jobs, Fed). 🟣 MANIFOLD Play-money platform. Great for testing thesis before deploying real capital. No financial risk — pure signal quality testing. 🟢 METACULUS Aggregated forecasting. Community-driven. No direct trading, but excellent for calibrating your probability thinking. ⚫ PREDICTIT US-regulated. Focused on political markets. 10% fee on profits. Higher cost of edge. Best used selectively. 🔴 AZURO On-chain sports betting markets. Decentralised. Higher variance, higher upside. Emerging liquidity. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE EDGE QUESTION The question isn't "which platform is best" — it's "where does my edge translate?" EdgeFinder's NO-side ML model currently runs primarily on Polymarket. The crowd-overpricing of YES applies wherever long-shot bias exists — which is everywhere. Different fee structures and liquidity mean the same signal has different expected value on each platform. The EdgeFinder Foundation course covers this in detail. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Learn more in The EdgeFinder Foundation course — Classroom tab above.

EdgeFinder generates two types of signals: ML Model signals and Crash Detection signals. Today we're looking at Crash Detection — and why it's a distinct edge. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ WHAT IS CRASH DETECTION? ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Crash Detection identifies prediction markets where the YES price has surged rapidly — often due to news, social media momentum, or emotional crowd behavior. The model detects two specific patterns: Momentum Crash — a market where YES price spiked fast and hard, driven by short-term sentiment rather than underlying probability. Extreme Crash — a market where YES is priced far above what the underlying data supports, creating an extreme overvaluation gap. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ WHY BET NO? ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ When markets crash upward emotionally, they tend to mean-revert. Most things don't happen. The YES side was never pricing reality — it was pricing hype. Crash Detection is a structural bet against overreaction. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TODAY'S PROOF OF CONCEPT ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Today saw two Crash signals resolve as wins: ✅ Alanyaspor (Momentum Crash) — NO won ✅ Millwall FC (Momentum Crash) — NO won Both were flagged before resolution. Both resolved NO. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Crash Detection is built into the EdgeFinder tool alongside ML signals. You can see signal type labeled on every alert. Learn more in The EdgeFinder Foundation course — Classroom tab above.

Live signals from the EdgeFinder ML model — April 11, 2026. All signals are bet NO. We fade YES when the model says the market is overpriced. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ PENDING SIGNALS — BET NO ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? 2. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 3. YES @ 36.5¢ → Bet NO 4. polymarket.com/event/epl-not-ast-2026-04-12 5. Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-11? 6. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 7. YES @ 32.5¢ → Bet NO 8. polymarket.com/event/mls-por-laf-2026-04-11 9. Will Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? 10. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 11. YES @ 34.3¢ → Bet NO 12. polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-12 13. Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? 14. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 15. YES @ 38.5¢ → Bet NO 16. polymarket.com/event/mls-aus-lag-2026-04-11 17. Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11? 18. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 19. YES @ 33.5¢ → Bet NO 20. polymarket.com/event/mls-mim-phi-2026-04-11 21. Will 40-49 ships transit Strait of Hormuz (Apr 6-12)? 22. Platform: Polymarket | Type: Crash (Extreme Crash) 23. YES @ 30.3¢ → Bet NO 24. polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-apr-6-12 25. Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets (Apr 7-14)? 26. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 27. YES @ 38.5¢ → Bet NO 28. polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-7-april-14 29. Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-11? 30. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 31. YES @ 36.5¢ → Bet NO 32. polymarket.com/event/mls-clt-nas-2026-04-11 33. Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? (Hungary Election) 34. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 35. YES @ 38.5¢ → Bet NO 36. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-fidesz-kdnp-wins-seats 37. Will LA Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? 38. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 39. YES @ 35.0¢ → Bet NO 40. polymarket.com/event/which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 41. Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? 42. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 43. YES @ 30.5¢ → Bet NO 44. polymarket.com/event/peru-presidential-election-winner 45. Will Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? 46. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 47. YES @ 36.0¢ → Bet NO 48. polymarket.com/event/which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 49. Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? (Hungary) 50. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 51. YES @ 30.5¢ → Bet NO 52. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-tisza-wins-at-least-seats 53. Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? 54. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 55. YES @ 30.0¢ → Bet NO 56. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-tisza-wins-a-constitutional-majority 57. Will Tisza win 130+ seats in Hungarian National Assembly? 58. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 59. YES @ 32.0¢ → Bet NO 60. polymarket.com/event/of-seats-won-by-tisza-in-hungary-parliamentary-election 61. Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? (Hungary) 62. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML 63. YES @ 31.5¢ → Bet NO 64. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-fidesz-kdnp-wins-seats

Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged before resolution. Nothing deleted. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT RECORD ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Wins: 7 Losses: 3 Pending: 16 Win Rate: 70.0% Total Signals: 26 Status: VALIDATED ✅ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ML Signals: 5W / 2L — 71.4% win rate Crash Signals: 2W / 1L — 66.7% win rate Combined: 0W / 0L — N/A ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? — YES @ 36.5¢ → Bet NO 2. polymarket.com/event/epl-not-ast-2026-04-12 3. Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-11? — YES @ 32.5¢ → Bet NO 4. polymarket.com/event/mls-por-laf-2026-04-11 5. Will Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? — YES @ 34.3¢ → Bet NO 6. polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-12 7. Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? — YES @ 38.5¢ → Bet NO 8. polymarket.com/event/mls-aus-lag-2026-04-11 9. Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11? — YES @ 33.5¢ → Bet NO 10. polymarket.com/event/mls-mim-phi-2026-04-11 11. Will 40-49 ships transit Strait of Hormuz (Apr 6-12)? — YES @ 30.3¢ → Bet NO [Crash: Extreme Crash] 12. polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-apr-6-12 13. Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets (Apr 7-14)? — YES @ 38.5¢ → Bet NO 14. polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-7-april-14 15. Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-11? — YES @ 36.5¢ → Bet NO 16. polymarket.com/event/mls-clt-nas-2026-04-11 17. Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? — YES @ 38.5¢ → Bet NO 18. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-fidesz-kdnp-wins-seats 19. Will LA Clippers make NBA Playoffs? — YES @ 35.0¢ → Bet NO 20. polymarket.com/event/which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 21. Will Keiko Fujimori win 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — YES @ 30.5¢ → Bet NO 22. polymarket.com/event/peru-presidential-election-winner 23. Will Charlotte Hornets make NBA Playoffs? — YES @ 36.0¢ → Bet NO 24. polymarket.com/event/which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs-138 25. Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? — YES @ 30.5¢ → Bet NO 26. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-tisza-wins-at-least-seats 27. Hungary Election: TISZA wins constitutional majority? — YES @ 30.0¢ → Bet NO 28. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-tisza-wins-a-constitutional-majority 29. Will Tisza win 130+ seats in Hungarian National Assembly? — YES @ 32.0¢ → Bet NO 30. polymarket.com/event/of-seats-won-by-tisza-in-hungary-parliamentary-election 31. Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? — YES @ 31.5¢ → Bet NO 32. polymarket.com/event/hungary-election-fidesz-kdnp-wins-seats