The CTT trade appears to be playing out, with the TACO trade emerging as the obvious next move following Trump's relentless Sunday night social media posts preaching "Hell." With the Dow set to open nearly 1,000 points higher, it's clear that the credible threat strategy is working. Expect more of these late-night outbursts and over-the-top statements. I believe there’s a deliberate message delivery system designed for elites to decode. My conspiracy-oriented mind sees Trump’s messaging as intentionally delivered in either an “obnoxious” or “serious” tone—often making it hard to distinguish between the two. However, once you become aware of this possible system, it becomes easier to identify and anticipate the TACO trades. The real skill lies in reviewing everything with serious intent and a “credible threat” lens, then determining what the statements are truly meant to convey.

Anyone here remember the supposed trillions in deals struck by Trump exactly one year ago? All centering around defense and AI spending. Was there anything to this?

This is only a very tentative theory which occurred to me, so I haven’t determined how seriously I’m thinking it, but I’d like to lay my thinking out and read any feedback you guys have. The Fed clearly intended to elevate inflation expectations over the past half decade or so; and appears to have succeeded in doing that. If inflation expectations are elevated; market participants are proportionately motivated to generate higher yields on their wealth to keep ahead of the inflation rate which whittles down an uninvested cash position. Logically, therefore, market participants in an elevated inflation environment will be motivated to move further out into riskier and riskier capital allocations, as the inflationary cost of failing to generate sufficient yield increases. The consequence of this, presumably, is to edge the economy into a less and less sound position, due to there being increasing fragility in the market’s capital flows, compounded by leverage to an ever greater extent. Assuming I’m right about all that, it seems inconceivable to me that the Fed and similar such actors aren’t able to reason along these lines, and predict that by producing more inflation they elevate inherent risk in markets. My question, then, assuming I haven’t made any mistakes in my reasoning so far; is: what’s their endgame here? Do they want a collapse? Could this be the event they will be “forced” to respond to by the introduction of CBDCs, or comparable obviously evil surveillance state tools? What are they really doing? Just wanted to share these thoughts and explore your takes. Please let me know what you think, everyone!

No one is saying anything about #CTT. For the last few days I have commented on several random Twitter/X post that were pushing inflation expectations. Using grok to prove the #CTT is beingused to ease the economy. I would had suspected someone to push back against the idea that their own expectations is feeding into the federal reserves power. I know the things we cover are going deeper than most will see, but I would have guessed someone to attempt to dispute it. I have yet to find anyone who who even attempts to disprove the credible threat theory. Is too complicated, too esoteric, too truthful or is it so uncomfortable for someone to believe they were manipulated they prefer the manipulation?

Hello Simon and crew! While it is clear that cuts to the overnight rate are useless and true importance is within fedspeak (rapid incorporating of key phrases into asset prices), is it wise to expect better lending opportunities of any kind (e.g. auto and credit lines) at the lower 80 percentile of earners should r star move closer to the funds rate because of inflation expectations. People are quick to focus on the rate at which money is lended when they aren't in any kind of position to take on more debt. I noticed an increase in offers for both before and after the fed meeting last year, even with my poor credit. Thanks!