SPAIN vs CAPE VERDE — 10:00am MTNo picks on this game. Spain ML ~1.08 — way outside the 1.40–1.79 value band. Makhadmeh (JOR) averages 3.4 YC/game — below our 3.5 MED threshold. Goals: Spain will dominate but O2.5 is priced too short for any edge. Nothing fits the rules on this game. Do not force it. —— BELGIUM vs EGYPT — 1:00pm MT ⚠ Zeno Debast — OUT (Belgium CB) ⚠ Mohamed Salah — NOT FULLY FIT (hamstring, played only 45 min in warm-up vs Brazil) Belgium to Win — ~1.61 — MED Belgium at 1.61 is inside the 1.40–1.79 band. V4.1 estimates Belgium win probability at ~65-68%. Implied at 1.61 = 62.1%. Edge is roughly +3-6% — directionally correct but below the 9% engine confirmation threshold. Posting as MED analyst lean. Salah's hamstring significantly reduces Egypt's main attacking threat. Belgium's quality should control this. De Bruyne and Doku vs a Salah-limited Egypt backline. Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.70 — HIGH Ramon Abatti (BRA) averages 4.6 yellows per game — highest referee stat today. Egypt will commit defensive fouls to disrupt De Bruyne and Doku in transition all afternoon. Abatti will card them. This is the strongest pick on today's card. —— SAUDI ARABIA vs URUGUAY — 4:00pm MT ⚠ Uruguay: Ronald Araújo OUT · José María Giménez OUT · Rodrigo Bentancur OUT · De Arrascaeta DOUBTFUL ⚠ Saudi Arabia: Salem Al-Dawsari OUT · Al-Obood OUT · Al-Aqidi OUT (GK) Uruguay to Win — ~1.50 — MED — V4.1 PASS (ANALYST OVERRIDE) V4.1 PASSES on this pick. Losing both starting centre-backs (Araújo and Giménez) plus Bentancur drops Uruguay's win probability to approximately 58-62% — that is negative edge vs the 1.50 price (implied 67%). Posting as MED analyst lean because Uruguay still have Valverde and Nunez and individual quality remains significant. This is NOT engine confirmed. Know the risk going in. Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.85 — MED — +14% EDGE Both squads massively disrupted. Saudi without Dawsari removes their main creative attacking threat. Uruguay without both centre-backs and Bentancur = disrupted structure on both sides of the ball. Engine estimates combined expected goals around 2.0. Engine probability Under 2.5 ≈ 68% vs implied ~54% at 1.85. Opening game caution from both sides compounds the under case. This is the stronger play on this game.

GERMANY vs CURACAO — 1:00pm MT Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.75 — HIGH// Jalal Jayed (MAR) averages 4.3 yellows per game. Curacao on WC debut — they will commit tactical fouls to frustrate Germany all game. Jayed cards them. Under 4.5 Goals — ~1.90 — MED — +15% EDGE O/U line set at 4.5 — high even for Germany vs Curacao. Engine expects Germany to score around 3.5 goals, Curacao around 0.6 — combined total around 4.1. Engine probability Under 4.5 ≈ 68% vs market implied 53%. Germany are professional — they win cleanly, they don't rout. Under is the play. Germany ML ~1.04 — no pick. Way outside band.// // —— // NETHERLANDS vs JAPAN — 4:00pm MT ⚠ Timber OUT · De Ligt OUT · Xavi Simons OUT · Schouten OUT (4 starters) ⚠ Wataru Endo OUT — Japan captain, ankle, retired from internationals Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.85 — MED — +11% EDGE Both teams heavily disrupted. NED missing 2 centre-backs and 2 midfielders. Japan missing their captain and midfield anchor. Engine expects NED to score around 1.3 goals, Japan around 0.8 — combined total around 2.1. Engine probability Under 2.5 ≈ 65% vs implied 54% at -118. Elfath (3.80 YC/game) lets games flow — supports low-scoring result. BTTS No — ~2.08 — MED — +12% EDGE P(NED scores) ≈ 73%. P(JPN scores) ≈ 55%. P(BTTS Yes) ≈ 40%. P(BTTS No) ≈ 60%. At +108 (implied 48%) = +12% edge. Japan missing Endo = less creative output. NED injuries reduce offensive flow too. No ML pick (NED ~2.00 outside band). No cards pick (Elfath 3.80 below threshold). —— IVORY COAST vs ECUADOR — 7:00pm MT Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.90 — MED — +17% EDGE — STRONGEST PICK TODAY Engine expects IVC to score around 1.0 goals, Ecuador around 0.9 — combined total around 1.9. Engine probability Under 2.5 ≈ 70% vs implied 53%. Both teams in opening caution — neither will overcommit in game 1. Ecuador 19-game unbeaten run = defensive discipline. IVC emotional but cautious in big occasion opener. Biggest qualitative edge on the card today. Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.90 — MED

QATAR vs SWITZERLAND — 1:00pm MT Switzerland to Win — ~1.50 — MED Only valid at 1.40+. bet365 is ~1.30 — skip. Check your book before placing. Over 3.5 Match Cards — 1.75 — HIGH Referee Said Martínez averages 4.17 yellows per game. Qatar foul early and often. Bet this regardless of match result. Switzerland -0.5 Asian Handicap — 1.65 — MED Use as backup if Swiss ML is under 1.40 at your book. ⛔ U2.5 removed — engine gives it only 46% probability. Market is at 54%. Wrong side. —— BRAZIL vs MOROCCO — 4:00pm MT ⚠ Neymar DOUBTFUL · Rodrygo OUT · Estêvão OUT · Militão OUT ⚠ Morocco: Aguerd OUT · Ezzalzouli OUT · Mazraoui DOUBTFUL Brazil to Win — 1.57 — MED (half-unit) Engine gives Brazil 62.9% — market already has them at 63.9%. Barely no edge. Still most likely outcome, but half-unit only. Over 1.5 Goals — ~1.65 — MED Engine expects Brazil to score 1.4 goals. Morocco still have Hakimi and Ziyech to threaten on the counter. Getting to 2 total goals is realistic. BTTS No — 1.90 — MED Ezzalzouli gone = Morocco's best creator missing. Engine puts Morocco's chance of scoring at 44%. Directionally correct. —— HAITI vs SCOTLAND — 7:00pm MT ⚠ Gilmour OUT · McTominay DOUBTFUL · McKenna monitored ⭐ Scotland to Win — 1.56 — HIGH — ENGINE CONFIRMED Engine: Scotland 69.8% vs market 60.4%. Edge = +9.4%. Biggest edge of the day.// Scotland ELO 1468 vs Haiti 1118 — largest gap in any game today. ⭐ Haiti vs Scotland Over 2.5 Goals — 2.00 — HIGH — ENGINE NEW// Engine expects Scotland to score 2.4 goals. Engine puts Over 2.5 at 59% — market is at 50%. Edge = +9.1%. This pick was not in the original card. Engine flagged it when we ran V4.1 overnight. ⛔ U2.5 removed — engine puts it at only 41%. Market was at 57%. That's a -16% edge. Wrong side. Scotland to Win to Nil — 2.00 — MED Scotland conceded 7 goals in 6 qualifiers. Haiti's attack is limited. Engine gives Haiti a 47% chance of scoring — tight, but defensive record supports it. —— AUSTRALIA vs TURKEY — 10:00pm MT// ⚠ Yildiz MAJOR DOUBT · Guler CONFIRMED FIT

CANADA vs BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA — 1:00pm MT Canada to Win — 1.85 — MED Note: odds sit just outside our value band. Davies not starting, but Dzeko also out for Bosnia. Home advantage and title pressure still apply. We see value — your call whether to place it. Archetype: motivation_edge_moneyline Home motivation: title_pressure — host nation, BMO Field Toronto, opening game Away motivation: neutral — Bosnia first WC since 2014, no title stakes Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Over 3.5 Match Cards — 1.70 — HIGH Referee Tello averages 4.57 yellows per game — heaviest carding referee at this tournament. Bosnia press high and play physically away from home. All ingredients for a carded game. Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Under 3.5 Goals — 1.60 — HIGH Dzeko confirmed not starting — Bosnia's main goalscoring threat is missing. Davies also not starting for Canada. Both attacks weakened. Canada drew four of their last five including two goalless draws. Under is significantly stronger with both key attackers out. Bosnia & Herzegovina Player to Receive a Card — 1.65 — MED Bosnia physical and aggressive away from home. Tello quick to card. Strong pick regardless of result. Jonathan David to Score Anytime — 2.20 — MED Canada's focal point with Davies out. 26 Ligue 1 goals in 2024-25. Will be central to everything Canada create going forward. —— USA vs PARAGUAY — 7:00pm MT ⚠ Julio Enciso likely out for Paraguay — their most creative player. Archetype: motivation_edge_moneyline Home motivation: title_pressure — host nation, SoFi Stadium LA, opening game Away motivation: neutral — Paraguay no realistic title path Odds band: 1.65 sits in the 1.40–1.79 value band Engine verdict: BET USA to Win — 1.65 — HIGH ⭐ ENGINE PICK Host nation in their opener, 70,000 home crowd, Paraguay missing Enciso. USA lost 3 of last 5 friendlies but those were against Germany, Portugal and Belgium. Paraguay are a step below that. Home advantage tips it. USA Asian Handicap -0.5 — 1.90 — MED USA to win by at least a goal. Paraguay without Enciso have limited creativity going forward. USA should have enough to cover.

Welcome to the Pro picks feed. On every match day, the full picks card will be posted here before the first game kicks off. Each pick includes the full breakdown from the engine, including: • Match archetype • Both teams’ motivation states • Where the odds sit within our value band• Confidence rating Any analyst picks will be clearly labelled, so you’ll always know what has been flagged by the engine and what is my own read on the game. The free community receives the picks later without the breakdown. Pro members get them earlier, with the reasoning behind every selection. Every result will be posted after the game — wins and losses included. Nothing gets hidden. Use this feed to ask questions, discuss games, or share your thoughts on any of the picks. I’ll be checking in throughout each match day. Good luck, and welcome to Pro. 🍁⚽