SPAIN vs CAPE VERDE — 10:00am MTNo picks on this game. Spain ML ~1.08 — way outside the 1.40–1.79 value band. Makhadmeh (JOR) averages 3.4 YC/game — below our 3.5 MED threshold. Goals: Spain will dominate but O2.5 is priced too short for any edge. Nothing fits the rules on this game. Do not force it. —— BELGIUM vs EGYPT — 1:00pm MT ⚠ Zeno Debast — OUT (Belgium CB) ⚠ Mohamed Salah — NOT FULLY FIT (hamstring, played only 45 min in warm-up vs Brazil) Belgium to Win — ~1.61 — MED Belgium at 1.61 is inside the 1.40–1.79 band. V4.1 estimates Belgium win probability at ~65-68%. Implied at 1.61 = 62.1%. Edge is roughly +3-6% — directionally correct but below the 9% engine confirmation threshold. Posting as MED analyst lean. Salah's hamstring significantly reduces Egypt's main attacking threat. Belgium's quality should control this. De Bruyne and Doku vs a Salah-limited Egypt backline. Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.70 — HIGH Ramon Abatti (BRA) averages 4.6 yellows per game — highest referee stat today. Egypt will commit defensive fouls to disrupt De Bruyne and Doku in transition all afternoon. Abatti will card them. This is the strongest pick on today's card. —— SAUDI ARABIA vs URUGUAY — 4:00pm MT ⚠ Uruguay: Ronald Araújo OUT · José María Giménez OUT · Rodrigo Bentancur OUT · De Arrascaeta DOUBTFUL ⚠ Saudi Arabia: Salem Al-Dawsari OUT · Al-Obood OUT · Al-Aqidi OUT (GK) Uruguay to Win — ~1.50 — MED — V4.1 PASS (ANALYST OVERRIDE) V4.1 PASSES on this pick. Losing both starting centre-backs (Araújo and Giménez) plus Bentancur drops Uruguay's win probability to approximately 58-62% — that is negative edge vs the 1.50 price (implied 67%). Posting as MED analyst lean because Uruguay still have Valverde and Nunez and individual quality remains significant. This is NOT engine confirmed. Know the risk going in. Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.85 — MED — +14% EDGE Both squads massively disrupted. Saudi without Dawsari removes their main creative attacking threat. Uruguay without both centre-backs and Bentancur = disrupted structure on both sides of the ball. Engine estimates combined expected goals around 2.0. Engine probability Under 2.5 ≈ 68% vs implied ~54% at 1.85. Opening game caution from both sides compounds the under case. This is the stronger play on this game.

SPAIN vs CAPE VERDE — 10:00am MT No picks. Spain ML ~1.08 — outside band. Makhadmeh 3.4 YC/game — below threshold. Skip. —— BELGIUM vs EGYPT — 1:00pm MT Salah not fully fit (hamstring) · Debast OUT Belgium to Win — ~1.61 — MED Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.70 — HIGH —— SAUDI ARABIA vs URUGUAY — 4:00pm MT ⚠ Uruguay: Araújo OUT · Giménez OUT · Bentancur OUT (three key starters) ⚠ Saudi: Al-Dawsari OUT · Al-Aqidi OUT (GK) Uruguay to Win — ~1.50 — MED (analyst lean — injuries flagged) Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.85 — MED (+14% engine edge)// Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.90 — MED —— IRAN vs NEW ZEALAND — 7:00pm MT Iran ML ~1.83 — just outside band. No ML pick. Iran training in Mexico due to visa restrictions — physical, frustrated game. Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.75 — HIGH —— MULTIS Safe: Belgium Win + Uruguay Win — ~2.40 Balanced: Belgium Win + Saudi/Uruguay U2.5 + Iran/NZ Cards — ~4.80 Bold: Belgium Win + Uruguay Win + Belgium Cards + Saudi/Uruguay U2.5 — ~7.50 Full engine breakdown in PRO. Picks tracker updated after every result.

GERMANY vs CURACAO — 1:00pm MT Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.75 — HIGH// Jalal Jayed (MAR) averages 4.3 yellows per game. Curacao on WC debut — they will commit tactical fouls to frustrate Germany all game. Jayed cards them. Under 4.5 Goals — ~1.90 — MED — +15% EDGE O/U line set at 4.5 — high even for Germany vs Curacao. Engine expects Germany to score around 3.5 goals, Curacao around 0.6 — combined total around 4.1. Engine probability Under 4.5 ≈ 68% vs market implied 53%. Germany are professional — they win cleanly, they don't rout. Under is the play. Germany ML ~1.04 — no pick. Way outside band.// // —— // NETHERLANDS vs JAPAN — 4:00pm MT ⚠ Timber OUT · De Ligt OUT · Xavi Simons OUT · Schouten OUT (4 starters) ⚠ Wataru Endo OUT — Japan captain, ankle, retired from internationals Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.85 — MED — +11% EDGE Both teams heavily disrupted. NED missing 2 centre-backs and 2 midfielders. Japan missing their captain and midfield anchor. Engine expects NED to score around 1.3 goals, Japan around 0.8 — combined total around 2.1. Engine probability Under 2.5 ≈ 65% vs implied 54% at -118. Elfath (3.80 YC/game) lets games flow — supports low-scoring result. BTTS No — ~2.08 — MED — +12% EDGE P(NED scores) ≈ 73%. P(JPN scores) ≈ 55%. P(BTTS Yes) ≈ 40%. P(BTTS No) ≈ 60%. At +108 (implied 48%) = +12% edge. Japan missing Endo = less creative output. NED injuries reduce offensive flow too. No ML pick (NED ~2.00 outside band). No cards pick (Elfath 3.80 below threshold). —— IVORY COAST vs ECUADOR — 7:00pm MT Under 2.5 Goals — ~1.90 — MED — +17% EDGE — STRONGEST PICK TODAY Engine expects IVC to score around 1.0 goals, Ecuador around 0.9 — combined total around 1.9. Engine probability Under 2.5 ≈ 70% vs implied 53%. Both teams in opening caution — neither will overcommit in game 1. Ecuador 19-game unbeaten run = defensive discipline. IVC emotional but cautious in big occasion opener. Biggest qualitative edge on the card today. Over 3.5 Match Cards — ~1.90 — MED