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lotto fRIDAY
TRADE PLAN for Lotto Friday SPX massive sell off today. SPX dropped 130 points from the highs. Possible we see more downside tomorrow if SPX fails to reclaim 6870. SPX needs through that 7k level to trigger a run to 7400+. QQQ dropped from 616 premarket to 601 at the lows. QQQ under 600 can test 589 again. I'd wait for 607 to consider calls. Mag7 price action has also been very weak. AAPL is down 20 points since yesterday, AMZN is down 50 points the past 2 weeks, NFLX is a long downtrend, NVDA having a hard time holding above 190. There's still no reason to take any aggressive risk with calls until we see the price action change in the market. Be patient and be careful this month.
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Amazon After Earnings: When Ratio Risk Beats Naked Risk
Last week we skipped trading AMZN earnings. Options were pricing 7.5%, reality was -14%, so short gamma was not the place to be. In my personal view it was only a repricing of capex and FCF timing, nothing more. AWS re-accelerated, ads keep growing >20%, NA retail margins are improving, but the market suddenly realized buybacks and FCF are pushed out by heavy AI capex. Post-earnings, the setup changed. The shock is out, downside skew is still rich, and fundamental downside convexity is much lower than before the print. That's why ratio risk now beats naked risk, so today I'm expressing this via a March put ratio:
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Amazon After Earnings: When Ratio Risk Beats Naked Risk
How to set ER price targets on ER day
earnings day is one my favorite days to make money. the moves can move +14% on stocks. about an hour ago, $OSCR had earnings and I got in shares. But I needed to find out what is the potential target range. So this was simple with Gextron: 1. Click on the price target tab 2. Found the expiration closest to the earnings date 3. Clicked on the top and bottom price targets that's it. 3 easy steps to identify high probability price targets without predicting or guessing. if you're looking for accurate price targets, seriously try Gextron: https://gextron.com/
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How to set ER price targets on ER day
NXT WEEK
If you want to make money this week. These are the 3 stocks to focus on. 1. MU above 400 2. TSLA above 414 3. NVDA above 184. That's it. I won't be chasing 20 random tickers every week, lol.
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