Soybeans Are Oversupplied? My Trade With No Upside Risk and $294 Credit

Hey, just wanted to share my today’s thought process. Soybean futures (/ZS) remain under heavy supply pressure from a bumper U.S. harvest, record South American output, and weak Chinese imports. Meanwhile, implied volatility in soy options has spiked on trade-policy uncertainty and weather risks, creating an attractive window for short-volatility trades, especially my go-to Put Ratio Spreads.

Trade I did today: /ZS Put Ratio Spread

- Expiration: Nov 21, 2025 (~60 DTE)

- Buy 1x 1000 Put @ 11.25

- Sell 2× 990 Puts @ 8.375 each

- Credit collected: $294 upfront

- Max profit $793 if /ZS finishes at 990

- No upside risk (if soybeans rip higher, I keep the credit)

- 75% probability of profit

Not advice. Just sharing how I'm trading soybeans in this environment.

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