Last week we skipped trading AMZN earnings. Options were pricing 7.5%, reality was -14%, so short gamma was not the place to be. In my personal view it was only a repricing of capex and FCF timing, nothing more. AWS re-accelerated, ads keep growing >20%, NA retail margins are improving, but the market suddenly realized buybacks and FCF are pushed out by heavy AI capex. Post-earnings, the setup changed. The shock is out, downside skew is still rich, and fundamental downside convexity is much lower than before the print. That's why ratio risk now beats naked risk, so today I'm expressing this via a March put ratio:

Microsoft is literally the only thing working today. Funny how everyone chases the NVDA hype until the market turns.

Sold off my MSFT and GOOGL today. Not worth holding them through this dip when META and NVDA are clearly holding up way better. Just following the money at this point

it’s a bad for tech today. msft, meta, and amzn are all dumping pretty hard... Feels like everyone is rotating out. Only reason aapl and googl are holding up is that gemini hype from earlier this week. I'm staying cautious until the dust settles...

It's wild that apple is the only thing green today. Guess the gemini partnership is actually starting to reflect into the price. Def looks like the play right now.