9h • General discussion
Why we let winners run, even on days like today
Days like today can test anyone's patience. Watching a Praedor trade run 250 points into the green and then come all the way back to finish flat is genuinely frustrating. We feel it too, believe me.
It's fair to ask whether we should add a safety that locks in profit once a trade is up big, so a green trade can't round-trip to flat. We've taken that question seriously and tested it thoroughly, across several years of data and every reasonable setting.
The result was consistent with Praedor, and at first counterintuitive: every version of that safety made the system less profitable overall. In our testing, capping give-backs cut our net results by roughly half or more.
The reason is simple once you see it. The same behavior that occasionally lets a big winner slip back to flat is the exact behavior that lets our strongest trades run all the way to target. You cannot clamp one without clamping the other. When we cut off the round-trips, we also cut off the runners, and the runners more than cover the round-trips. The frustrating days are simply the toll for that trade-off.
To be clear, this is not about taking on more risk. Our capital-preservation controls, stop losses and daily loss limits, are firmly in place, exactly as always. What we decline to do is strangle a winning trade before it has the room to become one.
So the requirement is patience and a longer lens. No single trade, and no single day, tells you much about a system like Praedor, or any strategy. The edge shows up across many trades and many weeks, not in any one session, and the hard sessions are part of the arithmetic rather than a sign that something is broken.
We will always be straight with you - on the strong days and the ones like today.
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Why we let winners run, even on days like today
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