6d • General discussion
Premarket 2-4-26 | Caution
The E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) for the March 2026 contract are trading lower this morning as of around 8:19 AM EST on February 4, 2026. The current price stands at 25,391.75, reflecting a decline of 60.25 points or -0.24% from the previous close of 25,452.00. Today's open was at 25,387.50, with a session high of 25,514.25 and a low of 25,354.50. Volume is building at 84,264 contracts, showing moderate early participation. Other feeds confirm the softness, with prices hovering around 25,385-25,391 amid broader caution.
From a technical perspective, NQ exhibits a Strong Sell overall summary. Moving averages signal Strong Sell (0 Buy vs. 12 Sell), while technical indicators lean Sell (1 Buy, 3 Neutral, 5 Sell). Key indicators include an RSI(14) at 40.737 (sell), MACD(12,26) at -65.01 (sell), ADX(14) at 25.456 (neutral), STOCH(9,6) at 99.553 (overbought), Williams %R at -0.662 (overbought), CCI(14) at -7.6769 (neutral), Ultimate Oscillator at 47.694 (sell), ROC at -0.041 (sell), and Bull/Bear Power(13) at -31.284 (sell). Pivot points for intraday include a classic pivot at 25,464.33, with resistance at 25,491.91 (R1), 25,510.33 (R2), and 25,537.91 (R3), and support at 25,445.91 (S1), 25,418.33 (S2), and 25,399.91 (S3). The bearish alignment from breakdowns below key averages reinforces downside risks, though overbought conditions on select oscillators could prompt minor rebounds.
Market sentiment remains bearish to cautious for Nasdaq futures, building on yesterday's pullback (Nasdaq Composite down 1.43% on February 3) driven by sector rotation away from tech toward cyclicals, ongoing Fed policy uncertainty with Trump's hawkish nominee for Chair, and a volatile precious metals environment weighing on risk assets. Earnings from key players like AMD, Amazon, and Alphabet are due today, which could swing sentiment if results miss amid AI hype fatigue or exceed on growth metrics. Broader indices are mixed, with S&P 500 futures slightly lower and Dow resilient, while global cues show European PMIs indicating sluggish services growth and Asian markets focused on NZ/China data. VIX around mid-teens suggests moderate fear, with the jobs report later this week (Friday's NFP) adding to anticipation.
Incorporating Fed speakers' announcements: Today, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook is scheduled to speak at 6:30 PM ET on "Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook" at the Economic Club of Miami, Florida. This could provide insights into the Fed's stance on rates amid recent holds and inflation data, potentially influencing late-session or after-hours volatility if her remarks signal shifts in the easing timeline.
Other red folder news (high-impact economic events expected to drive volatility):
- 8:15 AM ET: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast ~41K; a key labor market gauge and preview for Friday's official NFP, often moving markets if it deviates significantly).
- 9:45 AM ET: Final PMI Composite and Services (revisions could highlight services sector strength or weakness).
- 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.4; a major indicator for the dominant services economy, with subcomponents like prices and employment watched closely for inflation/Fed clues).
- 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (potential energy sector ripple effects on broader indices).
These releases, combined with European PMI data earlier (e.g., Eurozone Final Services PMI at 51.6), could amplify intraday swings, especially if labor or services data surprises amid Fed watch.
For futures trading, NQ looks biased toward sellers under the current bearish technicals and event risks, with potential for further downside if data disappoints or earnings underwhelm—target breaks below today's low (25,354.50) toward supports like 25,418-25,399. Rebounds to resistances around 25,491-25,510 might offer shorting opportunities, but positive surprises could spark relief rallies. Volume is steady but expect spikes post-data; with leverage in play and a packed calendar, prioritize tight stops and risk management to navigate the psychological dynamics of anticipation around these catalysts.
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Premarket 2-4-26 | Caution
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