7d • General discussion
Pre-Market 2-5-26
The E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) for the March 2026 contract are trading modestly higher this morning as of around 8:20 AM EST on February 5, 2026. The current price stands at 25,038.00, reflecting a gain of 38.75 points or +0.16% from the previous close of 24,999.25. Today's open was at 25,061.75, with a session high of 25,169.00 and a low of 24,915.75. Volume is building at approximately 95,000-97,000 contracts, indicating moderate pre-open liquidity. CME and other feeds show slight variations due to timing, but the mild upside bias holds amid mixed broader futures cues.
From a technical perspective, NQ shows a Sell overall summary. Moving averages lean Sell (5 Buy vs. 7 Sell), while technical indicators also favor Sell (1 Buy, 2 Neutral, 5 Sell). Key indicators include an RSI(14) at 42.919 (sell), MACD(12,26) at -94.18 (sell), ADX(14) at 32.58 (sell, indicating moderate downward trend strength), STOCH(9,6) at 99.211 (overbought), Williams %R at -0.929 (overbought), CCI(14) at -27.5474 (neutral), Ultimate Oscillator at 40.903 (sell), ROC at 0.153 (buy), and Bull/Bear Power(13) at -48.684 (sell). Pivot points for intraday trading include a classic pivot at 25,049.08, with resistance levels at 25,075.66 (R1), 25,117.58 (R2), and 25,144.16 (R3), and support at 25,007.16 (S1), 24,980.58 (S2), and 24,938.66 (S3). The setup reflects recent breakdowns below key averages, though overbought oscillators could trigger short-term bounces.
Market sentiment is subdued to bearish for Nasdaq futures, extending yesterday's tech-led declines (Nasdaq Composite down 1.51% to 22,904.58) amid AI hype fatigue, high capex signals from Alphabet (projecting up to $185B in 2026 spending), and Qualcomm's post-earnings drop on memory shortages and weak guidance. Sector rotation favors value stocks (Dow up 0.53% yesterday), while precious metals like silver tank amid broader risk-off vibes. Broader indices are mixed: S&P 500 futures up ~0.1-0.13%, Dow flat to down 0.07-0.15%. Global cues include BoE and ECB rate holds, with vague data-dependent guidance echoing the Fed. Tariff concerns under Trump and potential 2026 market crash risks add longer-term caution. Earnings focus shifts to Amazon after the close, alongside reports from LIN, COP, BMY, etc.
Incorporating Fed speakers' announcements: Today features Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook speaking at 6:30 PM ET on "Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook" at the Economic Club of Miami, Florida—potentially offering clues on rate paths amid resilient data and no-rush stance from Powell. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 10:50 AM ET on labor market and policy framework, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 12:00 PM ET (topic unspecified). These could influence late volatility if hawkish tones emerge.
Other red folder news (high-impact economic events):
- 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (forecast ~210K; key labor gauge previewing tomorrow's NFP, with deviations sparking Fed policy bets).
- 8:30 AM ET: Q4 Productivity (forecast +2.5% annualized; higher readings ease inflation fears) and Unit Labor Costs (forecast +2.0%; wage pressures watched closely).
- 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (forecast +0.3%; manufacturing health indicator).
- 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet (ongoing QT unwind monitored for liquidity signals).
These, alongside global data like BoE/ECB decisions earlier, could drive intraday swings, especially if labor metrics surprise amid AI/tech digestion.
For futures trading, NQ appears range-bound with a bearish tilt under the sell signals and event risks, favoring sellers on rallies toward resistances like 25,075-25,117 if data or earnings disappoint. Dips below today's low (24,915.75) could target supports at 24,980-24,938, but positive surprises (e.g., soft claims boosting rate-cut odds) might fuel relief bounces. Volume is steady but anticipate spikes post-releases; leverage demands tight stops amid anticipation dynamics around catalysts—tailor to your risk profile.
Have a happy and safe trading day!
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Pre-Market 2-5-26
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