21h • General discussion
Pre-market 2-11-26
**The E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) for the March 2026 contract are trading modestly higher this morning as of around 8:20 AM EST on February 12, 2026.** The current price stands at approximately 25,335–25,345, reflecting a gain of about 45–55 points or +0.18% to +0.22% from the previous close of 25,288.50–25,299. Today's open was near 25,289, with a session high around 25,384 and a low of 25,206. Volume is moderate at roughly 50,000–60,000 contracts in early trading.
From a technical perspective, NQ shows a **Neutral to Sell** overall summary. Moving averages are mixed (roughly balanced or leaning Sell), while technical indicators lean Sell in shorter time frames (e.g., Strong Sell on some oscillators). Key indicators include RSI(14) near neutral-to-mild buy territory, MACD with recent sell signals, ADX indicating moderate trend strength, and overbought readings on Stochastic/Williams %R that could cap upside. Pivot points for intraday trading feature a classic pivot near 25,300–25,320, with resistance at approximately 25,355–25,370 (R1/R2) and support at 25,280–25,250 (S1/S2). The setup suggests potential consolidation or limited upside unless key resistances break, amid recent volatility from AI/tech concerns.
Market sentiment is cautiously positive in premarket, with Nasdaq futures up ~0.2–0.3% alongside broader gains (S&P 500 and Dow futures +0.25–0.35%). This follows yesterday's stronger-than-expected January jobs report (payrolls beat, unemployment dipped), which eased recession fears but kept Fed rate-cut expectations tempered. Tech remains under pressure from AI spending worries and earnings digestion (e.g., Cisco weakness on margins), though rotation and resilient data provide some support. Earnings continue today (e.g., Brookfield, Howmet, others), with focus shifting to tomorrow's CPI for inflation clarity. Broader indices closed mixed yesterday, but futures point to a firmer open.
**Incorporating Fed speakers' announcements:** Today includes discussions with Governor Stephen I. Miran (conversation at the Dallas Fed event) and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman (supervision and regulation topic around 10:15 AM ET). These could offer mild insights on policy or oversight but are unlikely to be major market movers unless comments shift rate expectations.
**Other red folder news (high-impact economic events):**
- 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (week of Feb 7; forecast ~225K–231K) and Continuing Claims — key labor market follow-up to yesterday's NFP, with surprises potentially influencing Fed bets.
- 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (Jan; forecast ~4.15–4.35M annualized) — housing data gauge amid rate sensitivity.
The calendar is relatively light today, providing some breathing room after recent volatility, though it sets up for heavier inflation reads (e.g., CPI) tomorrow.
For futures trading, NQ looks range-bound to mildly constructive for buyers on this rebound, with upside potential targeting resistances near 25,355–25,384 if momentum holds and data surprises soft (e.g., higher claims easing rate concerns). However, technical Sell signals and overbought conditions favor caution—sellers could re-emerge on failures at resistance or hot housing data. Dips toward supports at 25,250–25,280 may offer entries, but expect choppiness around releases and earnings. Volume should pick up post-data; with leverage and lingering anticipation effects, prioritize tight stops and risk management suited to your style.
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Pre-market 2-11-26
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