4/15 - Market Update: I don't think the market cares anymore. Up only.
------- Let's start today's market update with an interesting stat --------- Bitcoin is up 12.3% and Ethereum is up 20.2% since the Iran war began. Yup. I don't think there's a bigger signal than this no matter what I think might happen, it seems the market is pretty over it and the smell the Trump Admin's desperation to get this war over. So as I've said over the last few weeks, the Iran Chart is the only chart that matters and right now it seems like it's legitimately the only thing holding markets back in the short to medium term. For example here's a few more interesting bits: - Spot ETFs posted $471 million in single-day inflows last week - Smart money is buying. - Iran put a toll on the Strait of Hormuz of $1 per barrel of oil - payable in Bitcoin or stablecoins! - The power is shifting away from USD... slowly but surely. - Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, filed his 69-page financial. What's inside? Investments in more than 20 crypto entities, including dYdX, Polychain, Dapper Labs, the Solana and Optimism networks. -- Lol, I think we can say he likes crypto. Interesting note for sure. - Iran talks failed on 1st attempt, expected - markets rallied later. - With the Strait of Hormuz closed by the US, more countries are forced back into trade with the US Dollar via US oil companies - Short term gains with long term consequences. Okay so after all this what's my diagnosis? Well... this smells like accumulation-chop. The market is okay with bad news because they can see the ending.... and that's really telling. I mean the US literally just created a blockade forcing a complete stop, choking the world of oil even further and for what? So US oil companies can make more money? Nope. The short-term pressure is pulling countries back into dollars. The long-term question is what happens when the war ends and those same countries remember exactly why they were looking for alternatives in the first place. What it means for you: The dollar is getting a short-term break, not a long-term rescue, the devaluation will continue. The structural pressure that was building before the war, US debt, weaponized sanctions, fracturing trade blocs, hasn't gone anywhere. It's just paused while everyone figures out their energy situation with multiple countries running low on oil reserves. When that resolves, the de-dollarization conversation comes back stronger, louder, with more urgency, and with countries that now have even more reason to want alternatives. This is why even with terrible Iran War updates, the Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom continue to get bought up.