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2d •
Everyone assumes Trump's family is crypto rich. They just lost $405 million.
If there was ever some folks you'd expect to be winning at Bitcoin, it's the Trumps. Memecoins. NFTs. A whole presidential campaign wrapped in crypto promises. But Trump Media's Bitcoin bet tells a different story. Here's what happened: - Trump Media bought 11,542 Bitcoin at an average price of ~$118,000 per coin - Bitcoin dropped 35% to ~$77,000 - The company reported a $405.9 million net loss last quarter - Today, on-chain data shows they moved 2,650 BTC ($205 million) to exchange Crypto.com They appear to be selling. Into the dip lol. What went wrong? - They dumped $1.36 billion into Bitcoin at one price point near the peak - They had no strategy for a drawdown - When the price dropped, pressure to sell got louder than any conviction to hold Connections, influence, and hype don't protect you from bad strategy. The rules of Bitcoin don't care who you are. The fix is boring. And it works. It's called DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). Here's how it works: - Buy a fixed dollar amount on a regular schedule (weekly, biweekly, monthly) - When the price is high, your fixed amount buys less Bitcoin - When the price is low, that same amount buys more - Over time, your average cost smooths out and you stop watching the daily chart If they had spread that $1.36 billion across 12 monthly purchases, their average cost might be closer to ~$92k per coin, not $118,000. And they'd still be holding. So here's the takeaway for regular folks: Bitcoin is healthy. Has been for 15 years and counting. The network processes a new block every 10 minutes, same as it did yesterday, last year, and the day Trump Media bought in. The code kept running. The strategy is what broke. DCA works because it takes your feelings out of the buy decision. And in Bitcoin, feelings are the most expensive line item on your balance sheet. Have you ever panic sold something and watched it recover? What did that teach you? Let us know. We wanna hear from you!
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2d •
5/22 - Market Update: The Pullback Happened - What's Next?
I Think The Bears Are Walking Into a Trap. Buckle in, this one is worth it. Bitcoin - $75,900 Ethereum - $2,070 For the last few weeks, I’ve been saying the move higher felt like temporary relief, not a full reset. Bitcoin bounced hard from the $60k range, Clarity Act headlines gave the market hope, and rumors of the Iran War winding down gave people a reason to get bullish again. But relief is not resolution. So yes, we were right to not fully trust the rally. The CLARITY Act still has not passed. The Iran War is still affecting oil and gas. The dollar is still strong. (actually going up still - temporarily) And Main Street (every day people) is still feeling way more pressure than the headlines want to admit. So let’s break down what I think is happening. ___________________________________________________________ 💠 #1 - The rally was relief not the breakout and the pullback happened. Bitcoin is now sitting near the lower area of the range we’ve been talking about, around $72k to $75k. This is the zone I’ve been watching. Not because I think Bitcoin is broken. I don’t. But because the market got ahead of itself. People saw positive headlines and started acting like the problems were solved. But they weren’t solved. They were just paused, delayed, or maybe slightly improved. A market can rally on hope, but it eventually has to face the actual facts again. And the actual facts are simple: Gas is expensive. Oil is still a problem. The Fed is still stuck. The consumer is getting squeezed. And the dollar is not giving crypto an easy path higher yet. So no, I do not think the pain is fully over. But I also do not think this is the start of some giant collapse to $55k per Bitcoin. That is where I think bearish people are making the mistake. _______________________________________________________________ 💠 #2 - Inflation may stay high, but that does not mean the Fed will hike. This is the part I think a lot of people are missing. If inflation is rising because people are spending too much money, the Fed can raise rates to slow demand.
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Mar 19 •
Welcome to The School of Bits — Start Here!
In our 10+ years of combined experience being in this industry, we watched good, capable and smart people miss the most important financial shift of our lifetime. Not because they weren't paying attention, but because the first thing they heard was "scam" and nobody gave them an honest explanation to learn otherwise. We're not here to push a "get rich" strategy, or convince you of doing anything. We're here because the biggest financial shift of our lifetime is unfolding right now. So we built the education we wish existed, compressed it into lessons that take minutes, and made sure you never have to feel like you're already too late. This is that place. _____________________________________________________________________ Here's where to begin: Step 1 — Download The Bitcoin Castle: Before you touch a single lesson, grab our free visual guide: The Bitcoin Castle: A Visual Beginner's Guide That Explains Why Bitcoin Has Value. It's the foundation everything else is built on. If you've ever struggled to understand why Bitcoin has value at all, this is the thing that makes it click. You'll find it waiting for you at the start of the Beginner Course below. Step 2 — Start the Beginner Crypto Crash Course: This is your home base. We built this course around the questions real beginners actually ask without the weird crypto jargon and techy explanations. By the time you finish, you'll understand what Bitcoin is, why it exists, why it matters, and why the timing of this conversation is important. Step 3 — Follow the Market Breakdowns: We publish regular news breakdowns and market analysis discussions so you can start connecting what you're learning to what's actually happening in the world right now. This is where the theory you're learning becomes real and you'll start to understand that Bitcoin isn't getting more valuable, it's your dollars getting weaker. ___________________________________________________________________ What's coming: The School of Bits is a growing school and this is just the beginning.
9d •
"Why Bitcoin and not other coins?" - How we explain it.
I just had a conversation with a friend who simply asked "Why buy Bitcoin and not any of the other coins that exist? Aren't they the same? Simply put, the answer is - No. They are not the same. Bitcoin is not “just another crypto coin.” In fact, most other coins are more like tech startups. They need users, developers, revenue, partnerships, apps, adoption, and constant upgrades to justify their value. Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin is trying to solve one very specific problem. "How do you store and transfer value without needing to trust a bank, company, government, CEO, or middleman?" With normal money, we trust a lot of people in the background. We trust banks to hold our money correctly. We trust governments not to print too much. We trust payment companies not to block us. We trust financial institutions to keep accurate records. We trust regulators to catch the bad actors after something goes wrong. Bitcoin flips that model. Instead of saying, “Trust us,” Bitcoin says, “Verify it yourself.” There is no CEO who can change the supply. No company that can dilute you. No board that can issue more shares. No bank that has to approve the transactions. No hidden balance sheet. No secret monetary policy. That is why I treat Bitcoin differently than the rest of crypto. Other coins may succeed like businesses or networks and it's important to say that we invest into other tokens as well. Some like ETH or Solana may have real use cases. But they usually still depend on teams, roadmaps, customers, revenue, hype, and execution. Yes, Bitcoin also has a bitcoin core development community, but it's open sourced and decentralized in a way others aren't. Bitcoin already solved the thing it was designed to solve: A scarce, transparent, open monetary network where the rules are known in advance and anyone can verify them. So when I talk about Bitcoin, I’m not saying “all crypto is good." or "all crypto except Bitcoin is bad" I’m saying Bitcoin is the one asset in crypto that is most clearly trying to solve the deepest money problem: trust.
10d •
5/14 - Market Update: Something's Fishy. I Smell a Double Trap.
BTC - $81,250 ETH - $2,293 Big News this Week? - Trump visits China to Strike a Deal with over 17 US based CEOs. This includes the biggest news in tech like Tesla's Elon Musk and NVIDIA's Jensen Huang to make a deal that could lead to peace in Iran. Overall picture - Fundamentally the market looks bad, but recent positive news like a potential US and China deal + Clarity Bill passing the Senate Banking Committee is pushing up the market to record highs.... but something feels off because the DXY (dollar index) - this shows how strong the USD is - well it's going up at the same time as ETH and BTC. [---NEW CHART ADDED BELOW - DXY (DOLLAR INDEX)---] Usually when the dollar gains strength it means that things that you buy with dollars become cheaper. That means stocks, crypto, houses etc etc etc... because technically you use less dollars to buy each thing - meaning each dollar is "worth more"... sounds complicated but hopefully that helps. Okay, but listen...this is not always the case and that is where I have mixed feelings. Let me be clear ------- I DO NOT THINK THE PAIN IS OVER. I think we're still due for a correction in the market, you can see how price is struggling to maintain above the red upper trendline we've been tracking over the last few weeks. Also, the consumer is still hurting and by in large, retail is completely out of crypto. I'm not hearing anyone talk about BTC and ETH out in public like before, everything has been AI and stocks related. So as we talked about in our previous market update we would need to see 3 things change before I change my mind about the crypto markets turning postive. #1 Iran War Over/Solution/Deal (China might make this happen now) #2 Clarity act Passed (halfway there now) #3 DXY/Dollar Strength Index falling But now I'm starting to see that DXY is actually trending up not just because of the negative economic situations we have but because we're starting to see US dominance in oil + bonds return. Previously many countries sold their US bonds off, including China which sold off close to 50% - approx. $650 Billion dollars worth. So this technically isn't a great sign in the short/medium term but I don't think it stays this way. I think if US and China strike a deal we're going to see bullish price action even if the DXY stays higher than we'd like.
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