Apr 12 • General discussion
4/12 - Market Update: Iran Ceasefire, USD failing, AI threat
Key take away this week? - We're seeing how US leadership is trying to keep the USD from losing relevance globally.
The US government had the most consequential week in crypto history and most people were watching red candles as the market tanks without realizing what’s actually happening….
Every story this past week connects to the same thread:
The old financial system is cracking, Washington knows it, and crypto isn't the threat they're racing to contain, instead it's the lifeboat they're trying to build by making the US the crypto capital of the world.
What happened this last week
#1 Iran talks collapsed. Remember what we said last week - this is THE CHART that actually matters. So after 21 hours of closed-door negotiations, JD Vance confirmed Iran rejected US red lines. The war continues. The Strait of Hormuz stays constrained. Oil inflation isn't going away. It's only getting worse now with the naval blockade set by Trump.
- What it means for you: The Fed's rate cut window shifts later probably towards the end of Q4. The thesis is still holding strong. Expect a resolution as May draws nearer. Political pressure is mounting, but a part of me feels like Trump will go scorched earth Iran... the more I listen to talk the more it feels like it's a Now or Never situation. He's leaning towards NOW.
#2 Treasury & Fed called a secret bank CEO meeting. Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell summoned the heads of Citi, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, BofA, and Wells Fargo to an unannounced meeting over Anthropic's new AI model, Mythos, which can crack vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser for under $50. Yes. That’s my bank, probably your bank and millions of other people around the US are potentially in trouble.
- What it means for you: The digital pipes the dollar runs on are more fragile than anyone admits publicly. Nobody commented on the record. Watch what they do, not what they say. Everyone said quantum was a Bitcoin threat, we’re not even there yet and the financial system is already in peril from language focused AI models. Smelling a bank run (will start withdrawing some cash to have on the side like what happened in 2023 with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
#3 The Clarity Act markup is Monday. Bessent published a WSJ op-ed demanding the Senate act now because time is running out before elections. The SEC chair backed him. Coinbase reversed its opposition which means they understand the positon they’re in now - looks good on the surface so far.. I'm skeptical. The SEC and CFTC said they're ready to implement the moment Congress moves.
- What it means for you: This is the regulatory on-ramp for institutional money. Legal clarity removes the last major friction point between Wall Street capital and crypto markets.
#4 Rubio said the quiet part out loud. The US Secretary of State: "We won't have to talk about sanctions in five years because there will be so many countries transacting in currencies other than the dollar that we won't have the ability to sanction them." old clip from back in 2023 resurfaced but important.
- What it means for you: The dollar's 80-year run as a financial weapon is ending, the government knows it and the nation's top diplomat said so on television before he knew this comment would matter more now than ever. The truth has been out - you're early, prepare yourself.
#5 Trump declared the US the crypto capital of the world. At Davos, Trump named China as the competitor and framed crypto as geopolitical infrastructure the same way he talks about AI and chips.
- What it means for you: This is no longer a fringe industry position. Crypto is now official US strategic policy. We think it’s because the US leadership is seeing that the ability to sanction countries is diminishing because the power of the USD is decreasing globally. The have no choice but to adopt it and help guide it to be Pro-America even if only partially.
#6 Ethereum staking hit 30% during a downturn. $85 billion in ETH locked by validators at an all-time high, while price sat 45% below its October peak. BlackRock registered a staked ETH trust. 21Shares launched ETF staking distributions. This means you can buy Ethereum ETFs on the stock market and basically get a form of a dividend. MASSIVE. We'll explain further in the video.
- What it means for you: Institutions aren't leaving during the dip. They're locking in while retail (every day people) are afraid and leaving the market. Less liquid supply + returning demand = coiled spring. Be greedy when the market is fearful. Be fearful when the market is greedy - remember this.
#7 Stablecoins crossed $318 billion. 99% pegged to the US dollar. Stablecoin issuers now collectively hold more US Treasuries than Saudi Arabia.
- What it means for you: De-dollarization is real (countries opting out of using the USD as a basis for trade) but countries escaping the dollar system are landing in USDT and USDC (these are crypto coins that represent 1$ each). The dollar is surviving by becoming the stablecoin layer on the blockchain. Bitcoin sits above this entirely, owned by no one which we always try to teach.
Okay so here's the BIG TAKEAWAY:
The domino sequence continues here from last week, timeline moved forward a bit.
Iran stays hot → oil inflation persists → Warsh's rate cut window shifts to Q4 → coiled manufacturing spring releases → dollar weakens structurally → hard scarce assets lead
Rubio's admission + stablecoin dominance → dollar survives de-dollarization by using blockchain rails → USD stablecoins become the new SWIFT (world wide money system) → Bitcoin remains the only asset with no issuer, no freeze function, no government behind it.
What we're seeing in real time:
AI model Mythos + Clarity Act + Trump’s Crypto Capitol → legacy system fragility exposed → regulatory on-ramp built → institutional capital gets a clean entry point → USD survives in a new landscape → US Power Maintains
A lot to dig into here - I had to find a way to shorten it because it was massive report write up. So many things going on, but the signal is clear. Crypto adoption is getting stronger. Price will follow as they print money to save the economy and as companies + US adopt crypto as a protection layer from AI + USD devaluation.
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4/12 - Market Update: Iran Ceasefire, USD failing, AI threat
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