📊 Global & U.S. Economic Update – May 22, 2025
🌍 Global Economic Outlook 📉 Growth Projections: - The United Nations has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 2.4% for 2025, citing escalating U.S. tariffs and mounting global trade tensions. - The World Bank projects global growth to hold steady at 2.7% for 2025-26, indicating a settling at a low growth rate that may be insufficient for sustained economic development. 💱 Trade and Inflation: - Recent U.S. tariff increases have disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher production costs and contributing to inflationary pressures worldwide. - Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser notes a shift from cooperative globalization toward a more self-interested, multipolar trade system, with investors reconsidering the reliability of the U.S. dollar. 🌐 Regional Highlights: - China: GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2025 due to weak consumer sentiment and trade tensions. - India: Projected to play a significant role in driving global economic growth, with domestic inflation aligning with the central bank's target levels, fostering hopes for accommodative monetary policy. - European Union: Growth is projected at 1.1% in 2025, with inflation expected to decline to 2.1%. U.S. Economic Outlook: 📉 GDP and Growth: - Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to increased imports and decreased government spending. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.8% for 2025, down from around 3% in previous years. 📈 Inflation and Monetary Policy: - Inflation remains a concern, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 3.6% in the first quarter. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy, with potential rate cuts being considered if inflation persists. 💰 Fiscal Policy and Debt: - President Trump's new tax and spending bill is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the national debt, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. - The IMF has urged the U.S. to reduce its growing fiscal deficit and address the rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached 98% in fiscal year 2024.