Global & U.S. Economic Update - June 28, 2025
🌍 Global Economic Outlook📉 Growth Projections - United Nations: Revised global growth forecast to 2.2% for 2025, reflecting ongoing supply chain issues and geopolitical instability. - World Bank: Maintains a 2.6% global growth outlook for 2025–2026, as economies adjust to tightening financial conditions and inflationary pressures. 💱 Trade & Inflation - Tariffs: Continued U.S.-China trade tensions are keeping global supply chains under strain, adding to inflationary pressures. - Dollar Shift: Many emerging markets are diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, signaling shifts in global reserve management. 🌐 Regional Highlights - China: GDP growth forecast at 4.3% for 2025, driven by steady consumer recovery, but facing headwinds from global trade uncertainties. - India: GDP growth forecast at 7.0%, supported by strong industrial growth and robust domestic demand, although inflation risks remain. - European Union: Economic growth forecast at 1.2%, with inflation projected at 2.3%, as the EU grapples with sluggish recovery from earlier global disruptions. 🇺🇸 U.S. Economic Outlook📉 GDP & Growth - Q1 2025 Real GDP: Contraction of −0.1%, driven by slower consumer spending and higher import costs. - IMF Outlook: U.S. GDP growth forecast reduced to 1.6% for 2025, reflecting weaker economic momentum. 📈 Inflation & Monetary Policy - PCE Inflation: Rose 3.9% in Q1 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. - Federal Reserve: Continues tightening monetary policy with expectations of further rate hikes through mid-2025. 💰 Fiscal Policy & National Debt - National Debt: Debt-to-GDP ratio reached 99% in FY2024, prompting calls for fiscal policy adjustments to manage long-term debt sustainability. - Treasury Outlook: Ongoing fiscal challenges may lead to increased discussions around deficit reduction. 🛍️ Consumer Sentiment & Retail Trends - Sentiment: Consumer sentiment continues to decline, now at its lowest since 2023, driven by inflation and high interest rates. - Retail Performance: Mixed performance across retailers—home improvement stores like Lowe's report gains, while luxury brands see a slowdown in sales as higher-income consumers become more cautious.