📊 Global & U.S. Economic Update – May 22, 2025

🌍 Global Economic Outlook

📉 Growth Projections:

The United Nations has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 2.4% for 2025, citing escalating U.S. tariffs and mounting global trade tensions.
The World Bank projects global growth to hold steady at 2.7% for 2025-26, indicating a settling at a low growth rate that may be insufficient for sustained economic development.

💱 Trade and Inflation:

Recent U.S. tariff increases have disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher production costs and contributing to inflationary pressures worldwide.
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser notes a shift from cooperative globalization toward a more self-interested, multipolar trade system, with investors reconsidering the reliability of the U.S. dollar.

🌐 Regional Highlights:

China: GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2025 due to weak consumer sentiment and trade tensions.
India: Projected to play a significant role in driving global economic growth, with domestic inflation aligning with the central bank's target levels, fostering hopes for accommodative monetary policy.
European Union: Growth is projected at 1.1% in 2025, with inflation expected to decline to 2.1%.

U.S. Economic Outlook:

📉 GDP and Growth:

Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to increased imports and decreased government spending.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.8% for 2025, down from around 3% in previous years.

📈 Inflation and Monetary Policy:

Inflation remains a concern, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 3.6% in the first quarter.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy, with potential rate cuts being considered if inflation persists.

💰 Fiscal Policy and Debt:

President Trump's new tax and spending bill is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the national debt, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
The IMF has urged the U.S. to reduce its growing fiscal deficit and address the rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached 98% in fiscal year 2024.

🛍️ Consumer Sentiment and Retail:

Consumer sentiment has declined for the fifth consecutive month, reaching near-record lows amid inflation fears.
Retailers are experiencing mixed results, with some like TJX benefiting from consumers seeking value, while others like Target report sales drops due to declining customer spending.

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