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Hedge Fund Manager/Investor
110 members • $49/m
6 contributions to Hedge Fund Manager/Investor
Apr 29 •
Metacon - A Supercase?
5-pagepitch Metacon Som alltid när bubblor spricker dras hela sektorer över en kam, även bolag som faktiskt har ngt vettigt på gång. Cleantech-bubblan inget undantag. Att grovt summera svenska ”vätgas-produktionsutrustningsbolaget” Metacons förutsättningar och jämföra med andra nu döda eller halvdöda bolag inom cleantech är en intressant övning: 1) Ovanpå cleantech-bubblans krasch har två emissioner under 2024 urholkat priset på Metacons aktie, trots att pengarna relativt uppenbart har genererat långsiktiga bolagsvärden. 2024 har renderat i ett flertal fundamentala framsteg som marknaden än så länge helt förbisett. Metacon har därmed inte bara lyckats överleva, utan också manövrerat till förbättrad och billigare slagsida. Vid mitten av Q1 2025 hade Metacon ish 80 miljoner i kassa. Merparten av genombrottet ”Motor Oil-ordern”, värd 344 miljoner kronor, förväntas under andra halvan av 2025. Applicera standardmarginal 20% och standard P/E 20 ger ett – om än isolerat för just denna transaktion– bv på ish 1,6 miljarder. I skrivande stund värderas Metacon till 184 miljoner kronor. Jämför: Undvika köp på toppen och sälj på botten är något man kommer långt med på börsen. Cleantech värderades orimligt högt för ett par år sedan. Många brände sig i kortsiktiga spekulationer om aktiers pris. Idag är cykeln i andra änden av spektret. Metacon just nu är en möjlighet till kalkylerad långsiktig risk i billigt fundamentalt värde. 2) Den stora trenden som drev och fortfarande driver cleantech, klimatförändringar, är förmodligen ännu mer aktuell nu än då. Nearshoring och energioberoende har senaste åren blivit ytterligare två drivande makrotrender. Olika former av förnyelsebar energi kan med god verkningsgrad omvandlas till vätgas för att lagras, förflyttas och användas i en mängd olika applikationer och former som egenproducerat drivmedel. Jämför: Vätgas överbryggar glappet mellan förnyelsebara energikällor och applikationer med krav på styrbarhet och kraft. Tidigare en makrotrend i ryggen, idag tre.
0 likes • May 7
Agree to the fullest. The forecasting is a guessig-game. Personally i rely on factors that for example Azelio and other cleantechs dont have: They dont have large units, they dont have statistics from hot installations, they dont have a financial strong customers with a massive need, they dont have the cheapest products, and they dont have a massive demoex soon installed. And, if another share issue is needed in the near future, the case is gone. The low valuation of the company and the past 2 share issues in 2024 makes all possibilities to raise capital very bad. If evevn possible. That is the big risk. If on the other hand the Motor Oil order gives sufficient runway combined with more orders, my hope is that higher valuation gives new financial opertunities up in 2026. This is my 80% in forecasting abilities and for the final 20% I surrender. The costs for the first 30 MW of the Motor Oil-order is in princip fully paid. That cost initiatied the second share iussue during 2024. The additional 20 MW is more uncertain but in my forecast they have around 30 million to handle it or "brygglån". Bigger question is the financing after 2025.
Apr 30 •
Evolution - Deep Dive coming
An excellent way to find interesting stocks to analyze is to look at good companies that have fallen sharply. They might of course actually be value traps, but it's a nice place to start if a lot of other people used to think it was worth 5x as much and it's still the same company. EVOLUTION might be such a fallen angel. WHAT WERE THEY DRINKING? The risk in Evolution is in a way 20% lower now after the 20% price fall on weak earnings today. An investor today still faces the same coming future stream of cash flows as an investor yesterday. The difference only being that the investor today has more clarity regarding this past quarter, and possibly a slightly better guess for the following few. After that the water turns just as dark as before It certainly looks like a good time to be accumulating shares starting here at 675 SEK -- quite the opposite from during the buying frenzy around 1700 SEK four years ago. WHAT were the thinking?! I thought it was overpriced back then due to political risk and high valuation multiples. Now, however, at the current P/S and P/E, it’s a totally different story -- a 2,5x different story, and 4 years closer the future stream of cash flows, i.e., another factor of 1.75 less discounting to do (15% per year for four years)! Evolution thus has 4.4x more upside now than it did then. It’s still not a certain money maker of course, but way, way, wayyyyy better today at 675 SEK than at 1709 SEK in spring 2021. Please note, however, that we’re still likely facing a year of global economic slowdown, and Evolution probably has to get through a few tough quarters, so don’t spend all your money at once. But do start analyzing, setting price alarms and start nibbling, for example a tenth of your desired number of shares per month.
2 likes • May 1
Hi Micke! I understood this to in the long run be a gatheringplace for more than just investing. So starting that broader approach of with a statement concering Evo: Personally I dont invest in certain kind of companys. Betting-companys is one in that category. I see gambling for money as a deadend principal which leads to inner and outer ruin. That said, of course it doesnt stop anyoneelse from doing it. Looking forward to both the deep dive in Evo nevertheless for learning and definelty for future deep dives. Here is one suggestion which I pesonally has a keen eye to: Stillfront. It looks to me as a investment at "the other end of the cycle". A couple of years ago, crazyhigh valuation and nowdays maybe extremely low? My own skill is to limited to make a clear judgement. Would be very intressted in a deep dive in Stillfront. Best regards and thanks in advance. The one who shares what has been given to him, certainly gains more. /Jakob
0 likes • May 6
@Karl-Mikael Syding Me myself unfortunately has no deeper understanding or analyzis of the company. I stumbled upon it and realised I have no idea in wich way to start trying to asses if its expensive or cheap. Concerning sales, margins and profits I know this so far: For the most profitable studio, Jayhawk, there is an agreement with the old owners. They have the right to 50% of the earnings until 2027. For stillfront as a total, this seriously damages profits. After 2027 things will look a lot brighter. In general it seems that sales, margins and profits are quite stable. Even tough Stillfront has somewhat of an "old" gaming catalogue. Maybe there people here in this gruop with good insights and interest in Stillfront? Would be coo if we together with the help of Micke could make an analysis on the comapany and make a valuation if the stock is exempensive or cheap.
Apr 28 •
Pitch
Hello everyone! My investing the last 4 years has been more or less only one case. Its still running and has been generous with me so far. From the beginning I had a plan to see this to the end and not sell out trying to catch some quick money elsewhere. I moderated that plan last month due to another case I like a lot and my conclusion was that it was a very good time for entry. So I sold 20% of the one and only case and now have 2 in the portfolio. Hurrey. The new case is a big thing to me in the way that i found it "on my own". I made the analysis that it was worth buying "on my own". I have written a pitch on the case that i would like to share here for mainly 3 reasons: 1. To get some feedback on writing a pitch in general. 2. To stresstest the case itself and finally 3 share with you as a potential intersting investment. A problem for that might be that it is in swedish (my written english as you can tell is what it is) and as a pdf. So unsure how well that will work out in here. What say yee all?
Apr 11 •
Intro
Hello everyone, great to connect with you all. I help investors and fractional experts connect to high growth companies (currently working in recycling, clean energy, impact, education, agriculture space) using my network. I am Indian born expat living in Singapore for last 10 years worked across 5 industries on building AI to improve productivity & generate sales. I am great at connecting people to opportunities & creating value for everyone en in the process. Keen to connect & see how I can be of service to you all 😇🙏
1 like • Apr 11
Greetings Mohit! Interesting work you do. I like the cleanenergy space and recently stumbled on the indian company (?) Luthra Group. Difficult for me to asses their magnitude and importance. Are you perhaps familiar with them? Best regards /Jakob
0 likes • Apr 11
@Mohit Taneja Thanks Mohit. The background to my interest is that i have taken a beginning position in a swedish hydrogen company called metacon. Except aspiring to be a major player in european decarbonisation of heavy industries throug electroysers in collaboration with chinese statefirm Peric (!) they also have a intereseten r&d-leg called reformation. Very rough description: it converts methan, biogas etc to hydrogen in a smart way. Recently representatives of Luthra grop were at the r&d complex and discussed a common future. It seemed of course very interesting to enter the indian market thrugh Luthra. My wonderings are very general like: how likely is such a collab, is Luthra a player to consider, do they have a good rep in india, do they usualy collab with europe, do they already have an outspoken interest in hydrogen and so forth. Thanks in advance! /Jakob
Apr 8 •
Intro
Hello everyone! My first case was Azelio. In the discord i met Sprezza. Azelio became a very strong teacher. I like to say about myself that i am a good "people-reader". As i read what Sprezza wrote in the Azelio-discord i instantly knew he was a person with greater insights and skils in the game. So i followed on to the Leading edge-discord and have been lurking there ever since. At the moment i hold shares in a biotech-company. Reminds a lot of Azelio in its all or nothing carachteristic. So far this is my natural habitat in investing: the all or nothing cases where count numbers is less, and probability of succses is more, central to the move. Thanks everyone for the chance to be here.
1 like • Apr 10
@Karl-Mikael Syding Glad you brought that up Karl-Michael! As I see it, that angle on the case also is a stronghold. To be able to demonstrate my thinking just a small background on the desease. Its PAH, pulmoniell arteriel hypertension. In short: the small vessels of the lungs grows inward, the preassure that the heart pumps against rises and in a short while heart failure and death. Hemodynamics between heart and lungs is central. Old ways to meassure this is rightheart-catherisation (rhc). Maybe two, at its best three times over a 24 week period. Both the guy doing the rhc and the patient can for million of reasons have a good or bad day. Subjectivity in the measurement is high. Also, only short glances at some points used to extrapolate over the whole 24 week period. (1) In Cerenos phase2a a cutting edge medtech – the cardioMEMS – in callobartion with major pharma Abbott, was used instead of rhc. The cardioMEMS is a nanocensor that measure the hemodynamics of the heart and lung wirelessly and uploads it digitaly once a day. The result is objective, constant och precise data over the whole period measured. (2) PAH is without known placebo-effect. No spontanious remission of the desease has ever been observed. (3) In the phase2a around 2/3s of the patients improved over time in a cominbation of Reveal risk score (prognosis), functionalclass (patient experience) and hemodynamics (mirrors the heart). In combination and over time all these three measurements suggest the same. A unanamous and linked perspective that suggests good effiacy. Valproate wich is the base of the canidate has been usen in humans for over 60 years in epilepsia. The limits for dangerous dosages are well known and Cerenos canidate is well below those levels. No serious side-effects where reported in the phase2 study. I In combination 1, 2 and 3 gives a strong hand. In my view, the probability of neagtive side-effects or sudden lack of efficacy is very unlikely.
1 like • Apr 11
@Karl-Mikael Syding This is where my investing takes a stop. P/E, forecasts, calcualting and numbers, so far i did not manage to figure it out. Thats why, very happy you are bringing it up. I am sure that i have some learning to do here that can make me improve. So far I looked at the case like this: ”will phase2 be postive, and if its positive, will there be an upside?” Given the deals made in the sector on substances with less qualities, and given the current sales of canidates with less qualities my conclusion has been ”yes, there will be a good upside”. Sotatercept/Winrevair wich is the only peer in the market did sell for 5 billion during its first 9 months on the market. A conservative view would be 10 billon peaks sales for Cerenos canidate once at the market. That will take some time and cost serious money. Phase 2b and phase 3 approx 5 years if moving rapidly and at a cost of 2 billions roughly. At this moment Cerenos holds a bv of 2 billions. 10 billions peak sale once at market, apply margin 50% and P/E 10, thats 50 billion. Take away 5 billion per year to market. That leaves us with 25 billion. I have some suggestions to why the market is mistreating the case. But they are all general and not specifics. (Another bonus of the case is that this concern only the first canidate CS1 in PAH. The second canidate in the company CS014, is the big brother. Repurposed like Losec → Nexium. CS014 is going for a another rare cardio vascular desease, IPF. It holds in all aspects similar outlooks as CS1 in PAH.)
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@jakob-domargard-2363
Azelio-zealot
Generalist
Speedy 80%er
Portfolio: 80% Cereno Scientific, 20% Metacon
Active 31d ago
Joined Apr 8, 2025
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