Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
Sun
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
What is this?
Less
More

Memberships

Hedge Fund Manager/Investor

110 members • $49/m

28 contributions to Hedge Fund Manager/Investor
Feel free to ask any questions you like about the Deep Dives in this thread
Ask about details. Make requests for Deep Dives in companies that are well suited for DDs and teaching the P=FxV method. Showcase your own deep dives, and so on.
1 like • Aug 1
@Stuart Hatch Thanks for the tip! I hope I'll never get to the Nytol stage!!
1 like • Aug 26
@Mattias Mellander +100% just since May (4 months) is very well done indeed. I've followed the share price and the discourse on X, not least including my friend Hans Isoz's involvement in Intellego. It looks very good, and I feel a little FOMO. But, hey, you can't be in on all winners!
Some portfolio company and stock updates recently
From my own portfolio: Cereno Scientific got a FAST TRACK decision today. The stock briefly touched 11 SEK, now back to 10.3 SEK -- still up 6.5% on the day and 87% YTD. Should be another +87% in the cards if the promised news flow holds this fall. My preliminary target, albeit admittedly on pretty shaky grounds being a biotech, "phase", company, is SEK 17.50-20- Mineros (3.22 CAD), my absolut favorite gold mine, 50 y old, 4.5% dividend yield, run rate 'P/E' (EV/E) och just 2.5 based on H1 numbers and spot gold price of $3350 has started moving. They seem to be looking into debt financing now, potentially to expand business faster, maybe more acquisitions like the recent La Pepa purchase. So, strong growth, aggressive new owners/management vid Sun Valley + Gold Logic holding 68% of the company, high dividend, and extremely low cash adjusted PE. This could ptentially be a 10x stock over 4 years [to 30 CAD], and if it doesn't go to 3x in 2 years, i.e. around 10 CAD, I'll swallow one of my Kruger rand 1 oz coins! Canagold (0.485 CAD) is pausing just below the 0.50 CAD mark, up 3x (+200%) since my entry at 0.17 CAD. It's up by 75% YTD and should likely increase by at least 75% the coming 12 months as the environmental and mining permits situation becomes clearer, as well as the collaboration/agreement with Taku River Tlingit First Nations who are the key land owners. Cana has much more explosive upside than Mineros, being a potential 100-bagger over 7-10 years. However, Cana admittedly has several key hurdles to manage, including permits and mine construction -- both political and weather related risks, not to mention financing and construction/organizational challenges. EMX (4.60 CAD) is also moving higher, +85% YTD, being a royalty holder of both copper and gold and an asset light royalty streamer. Both EMX and Mineros are stocks with a clear path to going to "11". Literally, i.e., the shares going to 11 CAD. That entails just little more than a doubling for EMX vs 3.5x for Mineros. EMX however has a lot lower risk, and is asset light, not burdened by fixed asset investments and mining operations. EMX on the other hand is higher valued and doesn't pay a dividend like Mineros does.
Dissecting just one "insignificant" EMX press release out of dozens
EMX Sells its Moroccan Portfolio and Forms Exploration Alliance with Avesoro July 8, 2025 Strategic rationale: The sale of EMX’s Moroccan business unit is the latest example of efficient execution of our Royalty Generation business. It’s a simple headline, nothing out of the ordinary. This happens often in EMX. The details are as always very interesting: Is it worth 640 thousand USD or 64 million USD? 100x Schrödinger cat uncertainty. Typical. We’ll know 5-10 years from now... DETAILS Alliance stage: - Avesoro has made an execution payment to EMX of $650,000. - Avesoro will provide an initial pool of capital of at least $1.5 million/year to advance the alliance projects and to make new acquisitions within the country of Morocco. The initial term of the alliance will be two years. - Avesoro has agreed to provide the necessary funding to keep the projects in good standing during the term of the alliance. - At any time, Avesoro can elect to deem any of the projects a Designated Project (DP). - Any project that has not been converted to a DP by the end of the alliance term will be returned to EMX. Designated project stage: - Avesoro will retain a 100% ownership in each of the DPs, with EMX retaining a 2% NSR royalty that is uncapped and cannot be repurchased or reduced.  - Each DP will have a minimum $2,500,000 work commitment for the first five years and each DP will be funded from an independent pool of capital.  - Commencing on the first anniversary of the nomination of the first DP, EMX will receive a $50,000 advance royalty payment, escalating by 15% per year until the advance royalty payment reaches $100,000.  - EMX will also receive additional advance royalty payments for each subsequent project for which a positive feasibility study is delivered. These will begin at $50,000, escalating by 15% per year until the project reaches production or the advance royalty payment reaches $100,000. - EMX will also receive milestone payments of $500,000 for each project for which a feasibility study is delivered, and $1,000,000 for each project that reaches production.
3
0
Why CanaGold Is My 2nd Largest Holding (18.6%) — Potential 32x Play
Hey everyone, Just uploaded a deep-dive breakdown into CanaGold Resources, one of the most interesting high-upside positions in my portfolio. 💡 Key points: • CanaGold is a junior gold miner in northwest Canada — not producing yet, but already sitting on 1–1.5M confirmed ounces of gold, with potential for 3x more in the area. • At current gold prices, that’s a $3–4B resource, and the company is valued at just $41M. • If things go right, I believe the stock could double yearly for the next 5 years — potentially a 32x return before they even hit full production. • The first major milestone is a vote by the Tlingit First Nation this summer 2025. Environmental permits should follow if that goes well. 🔎 This is a classic asymmetric bet: low downside, massive upside. 📹 Go to the Blueprint Library to watch the full breakdown with charts and valuation math. Or click here to go directly 👉 CanaGold If you’re new to junior miners or gold investing, I suggest watching the intro videos in The Hedge Room first to get context on how I analyze these kinds of plays. Let me know what you think — do you own any junior miners? Would you ever take a bet like this? Cheers, Karl-Mikael
1 like • May 29
@Stefan Weix your comment was spot on. It's very important to keep in mind that junior miners are juniors, and usually valued at cents on the dollar of proven findings for good reasons 🙃🫣🤑🤑
1 like • Jul 22
@Stefan Weix Well, I expect each year's news flow to double the stock price. We were waiting for the PFS, just as we are waiting for the Tlingit vote, and the permit application and permit decision..., and financing, off-take contract, equipment transport, mine construction, and of course gold production and sales. There will be many reasons for the stock price to increase each year. You should never chase a price upward I think, but if it's a good risk/reward bet, you should keep buying on every 10% price correction, more on -15% and with both hands on -20% corrections. I'm still a buyer of Canagold myself on corrections, despite commencing buying at 0.17 CAD and knowing there will sooner or later be a share issue to finance construction of the New Polaris mine
Suggestions for deep dive
Hi, Have four small caps that would be interesting to go through. I have concluded that it’s much easier to get a grasp around smaller companies and find values before others start to get interested. All companies are earning money and have a solid BS. For disclosure, I have invested in all of them. The companies are: Norditek - Technology to recycling of materials. Still early but with EU rules coming that demands builder's to increase the proportion of recycled materials the future looks interesting. Intellego Technologies - have a technology to measure colorimetric ultraviolet indicators with a huge global market. Even though the stock has rallied the stock is cheap if the contract they have signed will materialize. Sustainable Group - The main owners built Opus and sold it. Now they want to do a new journey with Sustainable through building a company around products that could enhance sustainability. They just bought a company that will double the turnover and increase earnings. Waystream - access switches to FTTx. After Europe banded Huawai and DZS have gone busted the way for Waystream is open. They are the number one player in the nordics for community owned fiber networks and they have now started to sell to the Nordic telecom companies. They could easily double its turnover when the existing buyers will go back to a normal replacement cycle. They also have started to expand to Europe. The Europe market is far behind with broadband and will expand like crazy after decisions from EU the next 2-5 years. Every European country has its own expanding plan reporting back to EU. Would be really interesting if someone would like to have a look or if we could do a deep dive into these companies. Have a great weekend!!
3 likes • May 3
Small companies are easier to make forecasts for and analyze if you actually take your time to understand the value drivers: how do they make and sell their products profitably. I don't know any of these four stocks, which makes it harder to have a strong view of normalized growth rates and profit margins. Perhaps you could add some information on revenue growth, profit margins and EPS forecasts for the coming 3-4 years? Norditek EV/S LTM = 1.5x, and P/E LTM 14x. Those are more or less average numbers, so if they can grow faster than the economy and be at least as profitable as the average stock, they are worth analysing. Intellego is at 27x LTM EPS so almost twice the market multiple. The 20% margin. They would only need about 15% annual EPS growth to be worth that multiple. That depends on trust in the signed contract. Is Sustainable Group publicly listed? I used to cover Opus, the car testing and service company, but I don't know SG. I'm online friends with Opus's former CFO and IR. Perhaps these companies make for a good conversation in a future AMA webinar, to make sure we can use your knowledge about the companies and their plans, and I can add my professional view on how to get from operations to earnings to valuation? Finally, Waystream: Down 75% from its 100 SEK peak 2 years ago. But up 10x from the lows 6 years ago. The number of shareholders has crashed in the recent couple of years from 5000 to 2000. Its a 25 year old company, so pretty experienced and stable. Recent revenue growth rate has been 12-14% but they made losses in 2023-2024. At EV/S 1.7x LTM their previous net income margin of 10-15% is good enough, as long as they grow at least the market average of 8%. Again, this company depends on getting back on track and managing their costs so they can produce real profits. It's a stock for a curious enthusiast that tracks the company and its newsflow closely enough to KNOW that they will grow faster than the market and return to profitability. They made 4m sek in Q1 2025 net earnings, but LTM -6m. If they were to make 20m in total net earnings over 12 months, it's valued at just P/E=10 -- REALLY cheap if they can grow EPS by 10% per year. P/E 20 would be more reasonable then.
1 like • May 30
@Mattias Mellander so they're at about 10x 2025 ebt. And growing fast. Even 3x would usually be seen as cheap in a case like this
1-10 of 28
Karl-Mikael Syding
4
14points to level up
@karl-mikael-syding-9554
Hedge fund manager Showrunner Finance teacher

Active 43d ago
Joined Jan 23, 2025
Powered by