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2 contributions to The Logistics War Room
The Great Unwinding is Here: How GenLogs Will Collapse the Two-Tier Trucking Market
We're at a major inflection point in the industry. The news that GenLogs has a government contract giving the DOT access to its verifiable, location-based data is the beginning of the end for the information asymmetry that has propped up a huge segment of the market. For years, we've operated in a two-tier market: • Compliant Carriers: Running ~2,500 miles/week at a cost of ~$2.30/mile, often losing money in this freight recession. • Non-Compliant Carriers: Running 4,000-5,000 miles/week by manipulating ELDs, operating at ~$1.99/mile and turning a healthy profit. This second tier, estimated to be at least 30% of the market, has been suppressing rates and forcing good carriers out of business. The GenLogs effect will be a one-two punch: 1. HOS Enforcement: The DOT will now have an "incorruptible ground truth." Discrepancies between ELD data and GenLogs' real-world tracking will be undeniable. The 5,000-mile weeks are over. This will trigger a massive, rapid wave of carrier failures as their cost advantage evaporates overnight. 2. Insurance Fraud Crackdown: GenLogs is also selling data to insurance companies. The widespread practice of underreporting fleet sizes to get lower premiums is about to end. When an insurer sees a carrier operating 100 trucks in network while only insuring 50, the game is up. Expect massive premium hikes and policy cancellations. This isn't a forecast btw, it's already happening. I'm attaching a redacted inspection I just received from a carrier showing LPR cams capturing them active on the road while their ELD showed 'Off Duty.' This is ground zero. The capacity shakeout will be faster and deeper than anything we've seen. What are your thoughts? How are you preparing for this shift?
The Great Unwinding is Here: How GenLogs Will Collapse the Two-Tier Trucking Market
0 likes • 7d
This kind of structural shift always exposes who is operating on shortcuts versus systems. When enforcement removes information gaps, the advantage moves to operators who are clean, transparent, and well-positioned not just operationally, but in how they present themselves to insurers, partners, and regulators. As data sources like GenLogs align with oversight from bodies like the Department of Transportation, credibility becomes an asset, not a checkbox. The carriers who adapt fastest will be the ones who already treat structure, documentation, and positioning as part of the business not an afterthought.
Quiet signal worth paying attention to
The U.S. has suspended immigrant visas across 75 countries, including Pakistan, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Uganda, Somalia, and North Macedonia. (https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/J5axN/3/) While the administration cites welfare concerns, this could indirectly affect the CDL driver workforce, as 18% of U.S. truck drivers are foreign-born, and many come from countries on this list. Combined with the August 2025 work visa pause for truck drivers, this adds another layer of restriction that might affect the driver market over time: - Fewer new drivers entering the system - Slower capacity replacement for fleets - Added pressure on an already fragile carrier base Layer this on top of carrier exits, high operating costs, and reduced truck orders, and it's another factor pointing toward capacity tightening. Link to article: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-suspends-immigrant-visas-191646725.html
0 likes • Jan 24
This is an important signal for logistics operators to watch closely. Capacity tightening increases competition for visibility, drivers, and shippers. In environments like this, carriers and service providers with clear positioning, strong online presence, and predictable lead systems tend to outperform. Through my branding, website design, sales funnels, Google My Business optimization, and paid ads services, I help logistics businesses stay visible and revenue-focused even as market pressure increases.
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