We're at a major inflection point in the industry. The news that GenLogs has a government contract giving the DOT access to its verifiable, location-based data is the beginning of the end for the information asymmetry that has propped up a huge segment of the market. For years, we've operated in a two-tier market: • Compliant Carriers: Running ~2,500 miles/week at a cost of ~$2.30/mile, often losing money in this freight recession. • Non-Compliant Carriers: Running 4,000-5,000 miles/week by manipulating ELDs, operating at ~$1.99/mile and turning a healthy profit. This second tier, estimated to be at least 30% of the market, has been suppressing rates and forcing good carriers out of business. The GenLogs effect will be a one-two punch: 1. HOS Enforcement: The DOT will now have an "incorruptible ground truth." Discrepancies between ELD data and GenLogs' real-world tracking will be undeniable. The 5,000-mile weeks are over. This will trigger a massive, rapid wave of carrier failures as their cost advantage evaporates overnight. 2. Insurance Fraud Crackdown: GenLogs is also selling data to insurance companies. The widespread practice of underreporting fleet sizes to get lower premiums is about to end. When an insurer sees a carrier operating 100 trucks in network while only insuring 50, the game is up. Expect massive premium hikes and policy cancellations. This isn't a forecast btw, it's already happening. I'm attaching a redacted inspection I just received from a carrier showing LPR cams capturing them active on the road while their ELD showed 'Off Duty.' This is ground zero. The capacity shakeout will be faster and deeper than anything we've seen. What are your thoughts? How are you preparing for this shift?

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There’s a quiet storm brewing: the escalating collapse of Class A CDL driver retention and recruitment. And in an inflationary 2026 economy? This might be the single biggest constraint on freight flow as we head further into 2026. The Numbers: - 80,000+ driver shortfall today, projected to hit 160,000 by 2030 (ATA) - 90%+ turnover at large truckload carriers (some long-haul fleets: 100-300%) - Average driver age: 47, with massive retirements looming while 18-35s avoid trucking - ~$12,799 cost per lost driver (before equipment recovery and late fees + ~G&A) - Wages declining: 2024 saw only 2.5% pay increase vs. higher inflation. Average weekly pay dropped 7.4% Q1-Q2 2024 ($1,730 → $1,602) Why This Matters Now: Since April 2025, inflation re-accelerated (core CPI 3.8%, diesel up 12% YoY). But here's what makes this critical: We're entering a tight capacity regime. Market structure indicators show that capacity availability is falling below critical thresholds. The kind of inflection point that precedes contract rate increases by months. This creates a collision of forces: - Capacity tightens just as the driver crisis intensifies - Wage pressure intensifies as drivers demand cost-of-living increases - Freight rates remain volatile, making mile-based pay even more unpredictable - Consumer demand rebounds, but carriers lack human capital to capture it - Small carriers close (depleted PPP/ERC funds), reducing industry capacity One BIG Problem: Process & Structure Failure: 1. Retention Crisis - 81.9% of job-seeking drivers prioritize predictable pay - 60% cite "lack of miles" as their compensation issue - Mile-based pay creates financial insecurity no bonus can fix 2. Process Inefficiencies - Job postings surged 63.5% in 2024 alone (Apr-Dec), signaling intensifying competition among carriers - Companies lose drivers between the application and onboarding - The company that responds first "wins" when drivers apply to multiple jobs simultaneously

LWR community, Sharing something we presented internally for our Ops and Carrier Sales teams. This "master class" breaks down the difference between running freight like a professional versus simply taking orders and reacting to the market. (aka post and hope) I used Manus AI to help frame it in very simple, crayon terms. If you’re in the 3PL world and your carrier reps Never operated in a hot market, or forgot what discipline looks like when capacity tightens, this will hit home. Markets change. Professionals adapt. Order-takers get exposed. Dropping it here for anyone who wants it.