The Great Unwinding is Here: How GenLogs Will Collapse the Two-Tier Trucking Market

We're at a major inflection point in the industry.

The news that GenLogs has a government contract giving the DOT access to its verifiable, location-based data is the beginning of the end for the information asymmetry that has propped up a huge segment of the market.

For years, we've operated in a two-tier market:

• Compliant Carriers: Running ~2,500 miles/week at a cost of ~$2.30/mile, often losing money in this freight recession.

• Non-Compliant Carriers: Running 4,000-5,000 miles/week by manipulating ELDs, operating at ~$1.99/mile and turning a healthy profit.

This second tier, estimated to be at least 30% of the market, has been suppressing rates and forcing good carriers out of business.

The GenLogs effect will be a one-two punch:

HOS Enforcement: The DOT will now have an "incorruptible ground truth." Discrepancies between ELD data and GenLogs' real-world tracking will be undeniable. The 5,000-mile weeks are over. This will trigger a massive, rapid wave of carrier failures as their cost advantage evaporates overnight.

2. Insurance Fraud Crackdown: GenLogs is also selling data to insurance companies. The widespread practice of underreporting fleet sizes to get lower premiums is about to end. When an insurer sees a carrier operating 100 trucks in network while only insuring 50, the game is up. Expect massive premium hikes and policy cancellations.

This isn't a forecast btw, it's already happening. I'm attaching a redacted inspection I just received from a carrier showing LPR cams capturing them active on the road while their ELD showed 'Off Duty.' This is ground zero.

The capacity shakeout will be faster and deeper than anything we've seen.

What are your thoughts? How are you preparing for this shift?

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