Hey, big event tonight: Nike reports earnings after the close. Consensus is for revenue down ~5-6%, EPS $0.27-0.28, and gross margin compressed by 350-425 bps. The Street is already cautious on China, tariffs, and supply chain pressure. For options traders like us, the more interesting angle is IV Rank at 52. That's really elevated relative to realized vol, which makes this setup attractive for premium sellers. Instead of a plain straddle/strangle, I'm looking at a structure that collects premium, removes upside risk entirely, and has a clear hedge if the short put gets tested after earnings. I'll share a more detailed breakdown of the trade and hedge plan on my social media since it's too complex for one post. In the meantime, I'd love to hear your feedback and your trade ideas for NKE earnings tonight!

TLT has been flat near 89, yet volume keeps rising while volatility collapses. An IV Rank of just 2 is not a green light to buy cheap vol. It reflects heavy institutional call selling that is keeping premiums suppressed. Long-vol is unattractive here, but this creates an edge for premium sellers. With yields capped both ways, TLT remains boxed in. I'm leaning into a synthetic covered call: zero-cost, capital-efficient bond exposure that generates daily theta. If bonds weaken, I can hedge by rolling the short call lower. As you can see, quiet markets often hide the best opportunities. Structured correctly, TLT can shift from dead money into a consistent income engine:

Hey, just wanted to share my today’s thought process. Soybean futures (/ZS) remain under heavy supply pressure from a bumper U.S. harvest, record South American output, and weak Chinese imports. Meanwhile, implied volatility in soy options has spiked on trade-policy uncertainty and weather risks, creating an attractive window for short-volatility trades, especially my go-to Put Ratio Spreads. Trade I did today: /ZS Put Ratio Spread - Expiration: Nov 21, 2025 (~60 DTE) - Buy 1x 1000 Put @ 11.25 - Sell 2× 990 Puts @ 8.375 each - Credit collected: $294 upfront - Max profit $793 if /ZS finishes at 990 - No upside risk (if soybeans rip higher, I keep the credit) - 75% probability of profit Not advice. Just sharing how I'm trading soybeans in this environment.

S&P 500 just hit 6,600 and breached the top Bollinger Band… That's time for SPY Call Ratio Spreads! Quick note: A Bollinger Band breach doesn't mean reversal. The market can run higher for weeks. But statistically, moves after breaches are easier to hedge, making this the perfect spot for a ratio spread. My today's trade idea: - Buy 1× 675C / Sell 2× 678C (Oct 17 expiry) - Credit Collected: $151 - Max Profit: $451 (if SPY pins 678 at expiry) - Probability of Profit (PoP): 76% - Initial Theta: $7/day - No downside risk, risk only if market explodes way above 682. That's the beauty of the call ratio spread. It gives you credit up front, profit if SPY stalls or drifts, and defined adjustment rules (see 2025 Trading Plan) if the rally keeps going.

Not stocks. Not crypto. The trade of the week is in GOLD! It rallied hard on dovish Fed expectations, U.S. dollar weakness, and safe-haven demand. GLD finished the week around 331, setting a fresh all-time high! IV Rank is 31. That means volatility is elevated, and options premiums are finally rich, which makes this an attractive environment for premium-selling strategies. Here are a few ways I'm trading it strategically to increase my probability of profit: GLD Call Ratio Spread: - Premium Collected: $123 - Max Profit: $623 - Probability of Profit: 87% GLD Short Strangle: - Premium Collected: $389 - Max Profit: $389 (credit received) - Probability of Profit: 70% /GC Short Strangle (for larger and more aggressive portfolios seeking higher leverage using futures): - Premium Collected: $4,510 - Max Profit: $4,510 (credit received) - Probability of Profit: 72% - High theta: $116/day! As always, active management is required, and your position sizing is critical.