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Jun 24 •
The Structure Behind the Chart
Try our free foundation modules (no sign up required for that). Membership of the group is also free (and will remain so if you sign up now as a legacy membership). No short cuts, no over promising just learn to do it properly. And any questions I'm here. WTF am I doing wrong? (Or, a very good place to start). Here's the answer: nothing, and everything. You weren't undisciplined. You were trading a shadow and calling it the thing itself. But there's no short answer to that, and no shortcuts either. If you want one, this isn't the course for you. This course works just as well for the complete beginner as it does for someone more advanced who's skipped a few steps without realising it, and never quite saw the full implication of a topic, or more importantly, how each topic affects the next, like components in a system. Especially if you've put a lot of trust in chartism. The value here isn't in having some knowledge of a lot of siloed topics, it's in the connections between them, and what they add up to. How the chain reaction actually produces the price movement you're looking at. What happened to produce the pattern you are witnessing, why that does sometimes show a trend and what forces can push it one way or another from there. Understanding things to this level, makes for better decisions. I'm Russell. I've been trading for over a decade. I hold a BA (Hons) in Business Management and have run my own businesses, and I'm currently studying for an MSc in Systems Thinking, the discipline used to understand climate feedback loops, supply chains, and complex adaptive systems. This course is the intersection of everything I've learned. Here's what that chain reaction actually looks like up close. The pattern you traded was real. The breakout, the setup, the textbook entry, none of it was imaginary. But a chart pattern is a shadow, a low-definition flicker cast by the high-definition, living reasons moving underneath it: short interest, borrow availability, liquidity, positioning, catalysts. The shadow can look identical two days running while the thing casting it has completely changed shape. Nobody taught you to check the thing casting it. That's not a discipline problem. That's a gap in your education, and it's the one this course exists to close.
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16h •
What Is an IPO? Why the First Day Isn't the Whole Story
TL;DR: An IPO is when a private company sells shares to the public for the first time. Day one can pop or sink, but the date that matters more is the lockup expiry — when insiders are free to sell, supply floods the market. Trade the structure, not the story. (Try our free foundation modules) https://www.skool.com/trading-beyond-charts-1603/classroom An IPO — Initial Public Offering — is the moment a private company becomes a public one. The company raises capital by selling new shares. Early investors and founders often cash out at the same time. The stock starts trading, and the market decides what it's actually worth. The first day gets all the attention. Prices can soar on hype, or sink on scepticism. But the real structural event often comes later — the lockup expiry. That's the date when insiders and early investors are finally allowed to sell their shares. Until that point, supply is artificially constrained. When the lockup ends, a wave of new supply hits the market. This is the lesson most retail traders miss. The IPO itself is an event. The lockup expiry is a structural condition. One is a headline. The other moves the market. Insiders who have been holding shares for years finally get the chance to turn paper wealth into cash. Many do. The resulting selling pressure can push the stock down, regardless of the company's fundamentals. Traders who focus only on the IPO date are trading the story. Traders who track the lockup expiry are trading the structure. The difference is the difference between being early and being trapped. This is what we break down in Module 5.2 — How to Find the Catalyst in Trading, inside the full Larke Cycle course. 📹 Direct video: https://youtu.be/VeHjbaBZ70Q 📺 Full playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfgm80ZXx6co&si=yoLNshicZ-H_jhYV 🎓 More on the OU Blog: https://learn1.open.ac.uk/mod/oublog/view.php?user=642789
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16h •
What Is a Bond Yield? Why Rising Yields Hit Stocks
TL;DR: A bond yield is the percentage return you earn on a bond. When bond prices fall, yields rise. Rising yields push up borrowing costs across the economy, which pressures stocks — especially growth stocks. The 10-year Treasury is the benchmark to watch. (Try our free foundation modules) https://www.skool.com/trading-beyond-charts-1603/classroom A bond yield sounds complicated. It isn't. You lend money, you get paid interest, and the yield is simply the percentage return you receive. The important part isn't the definition — it's the relationship between yields and prices, and what that relationship does to the stock market. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When bond prices fall, yields rise. When prices rise, yields fall. This inverse relationship is the engine behind some of the biggest moves in equities. And the reason is simple: the yield on a government bond is the risk-free rate, the baseline against which every other investment is measured. When yields rise, borrowing costs climb for everyone. Mortgages get more expensive. Companies pay more to service their debt. Future earnings, when discounted back to today, are worth less. That's why growth stocks — companies expected to deliver profits far in the future — get hit hardest. Their value depends on those distant future earnings, and a higher discount rate crushes that math. The one to watch is the 10-year US Treasury yield. It's the global benchmark. When it rises, the ripples hit everything from tech stocks to emerging markets. When it falls, risk assets breathe easier. For traders, the direction of bond yields is a macro signal that overrides almost everything else. It's not enough to find a good setup. You need to know what the risk-free rate is doing when you enter it. This is what we break down in Module 6.1 — Macro Indicators and Sentiment, inside the full Larke Cycle course. 📹 Direct video: https://youtu.be/uG_GsfANwjk
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16h •
What Is a Yield Curve? The Line That Predicts Recessions
TL;DR: A yield curve plots bond yields by maturity date — short-term on one end, long-term on the other. Normally it slopes upward. When it inverts, short-term yields exceed long-term, and that has preceded every US recession since the 1950s. (Try our free foundation modules) https://www.skool.com/trading-beyond-charts-1603/classroom A yield curve is simply a line that shows the relationship between bond yields and their maturity dates. On the left, short-term bonds. On the right, long-term bonds. The shape of that line tells you what the market expects from the economy. Normally the curve slopes upward. Long-term bonds pay higher yields because investors demand more to lock money away for years. That's healthy — it signals growth and a functioning credit market. When the curve flattens, the market is uncertain. When it inverts, short-term yields climb above long-term yields, and that's when alarms go off. The inversion matters because banks borrow short and lend long. When the curve inverts, that model stops working. Lending dries up, credit tightens, and economic growth stalls. That's the mechanism behind the recession signal — not magic, not superstition, just banking arithmetic. Every US recession since the 1950s has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. It's not a precise timing tool, but it's the most reliable early warning in the bond market. When the curve inverts, stocks face a headwind. When it steepens again, recovery gets priced in. For traders, the yield curve is a regime indicator. It tells you whether the market is pricing in growth, uncertainty, or contraction. You don't trade the curve itself. You trade the environment it creates. This is what we break down in Module 6.1 — Macro Indicators and Sentiment, inside the full Larke Cycle course. 📹 Direct video: https://youtu.be/UqpMvban_Z4 📺 Full playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfgm80ZXx6co&si=yoLNshicZ-H_jhYV
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17h •
What Is an Inverted Yield Curve? Why It Spooks Markets
TL;DR: An inverted yield curve happens when short-term bond yields rise above long-term yields. It means investors expect rate cuts and a slowing economy. Every US recession since the 1950s has followed one. It's not a timing signal — it's a warning. (Try our free foundation modules) https://www.skool.com/trading-beyond-charts-1603/classroom Normally, long-term bonds pay more than short-term bonds. Lenders demand a premium for locking their money away longer. An inverted yield curve flips that. Short-term yields climb above long-term yields, and the market is telling you something is wrong. The mechanism is straightforward. When investors expect a slowdown, they price in future rate cuts. They buy longer-dated bonds, pushing long-term yields down. At the same time, short-term yields stay elevated because the central bank hasn't moved yet. The curve inverts. Banks, which borrow short and lend long, see their profit model break. Lending tightens. Credit becomes scarce. Growth stalls. Every US recession since the 1950s has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. It's not a precise timing tool — the recession can arrive months or even years later. But it's the closest thing markets have to a verified early warning. When the curve flips, stocks come under pressure. When it steepens again, recovery gets priced in. The lesson is simple: an inverted curve is a regime change, not a one-day signal. It tells you the market is pricing in a slowdown. You don't have to act immediately, but you should understand that the environment has shifted. Risk appetite fades. Credit conditions tighten. And the clock on the cycle starts ticking. This is what we break down in Module 6.1 — Macro Indicators and Sentiment, inside the full Larke Cycle course. 📹 Direct video: https://youtu.be/EomBdf3ijFE 📺 Full playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfgm80ZXx6co&si=yoLNshicZ-H_jhYV
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