I've gone short GBPUSD last night why? Fundamentally this is a setup I've watched to short for the whole year. The UK is in a real mess and rate cuts are really needed. The US is in a much better place and can stay on hold, Kevin Warsh is a more dovish candidate but I expect to be out of this trade before he steps in. Technically it's only just aligned for me to get into this position. This shows the power of combining technicals and fundamentals as I would have been wrecked if I just went on the fundamental view. When I talk about fundamentals giving you the direction and technicals giving you the timing this is exactly what I mean! US CPI print today I expect to come in HOT with war inflation driving it higher. This gives enough time to get to target before GBP GDP to influence the trade. Potential to hold this trade for weeks-months depending on how these prints come out and how the war continues. CPI today will make or break this trade so it's a little high risk but entry on a 4hr chart gives breathing room (the joys of swing trading). This post is for educational purposes ONLY. Before you trade always make sure you do your own analysis and stay independent!

We've got a week loaded with high impact news! Prop firm traders be careful to not break rules. Live traders be careful your trades won't be too heavily affected by these prints (and war headlines). Tuesday: - German CPI (heavy weight for the Euro zone) - Australian budget release (AUD crowded long positions, anything that leans hawkish will provide little movement, anything dovish will generate large downside potential) - US CPI (biggest hitter of the week, war increases the chance of this print coming out hot but thats what what's expected with previous at 3.3 YoY and consensus at 3.4 YoY anything below 3 will cause a huge downside move to USD especially as Kevin Warsh is in the final stages of coming into Fed Chair who is supposed to be a more dovish candidate then our previous chart Jerome Powell. Anything above 3.5 will generate a bullish move also as it could pivot the stance towards a hike in the bear future. Both side have large potential on this print but more aggressive if it misses and comes in below consensus) Wednesday: - RBNZ inflation expectations (New Zealand being the only economy in the G10 currently in a rate cutting cycle leaves the door open here for some large moves depending on the print. A miss will cause a large downside move as it becomes highly likely for further rate cuts. A hot print will lean more towards potential of holding rates causing a spike to the upside but likely with no follow through) - US PPI ex food and energy (this won't carry much weight after CPI on Tuesday and mixed in with war headlines its not the main event of the week. Trade with caution but I wouldn't be too concerned about how this print will affect any longer term trades. Day traders still approach with caution as it will most likely just whipsaw) - President Lagarde speech (Watch for the tone of this meeting, Euro zone is in a state of stagflation driven by the war. This meeting could bring what they plan to do to come out of this state and could leave the door open for some aggressive moves in EUR. No side is favoured here, very high risk to trade as sentiment can change on the flip of a coin)

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CPI just misses, consensus of 4.8, actual comes out at 4.6. Yes it's a miss so the algo selling is real. BUT inflation has jumped 1% in a quarter. The RBA wont be looking at 0.2% shy of consensus thinking inflation is under control here. They will be thinking, yes this confirms we need to hike in May. Algos react on data not on the full picture, the full picture is very clear, institutions won't be selling AUD after a 0.2% miss. More likely they will buy the pull back. Poly market still pricing an 85% chance of a hike in May down 2% from yesterday's post but generally no change here. The masses are still expecting a hike and I have to agree. We broke out above the range last night and now we're just testing the top of that range which is perfect technicals. As long as price holds above the range there's no reason why this trade won't hit through the rest of this week to the start of next. Any questions please drop them below!