What to watch this week
We've got a week loaded with high impact news! Prop firm traders be careful to not break rules. Live traders be careful your trades won't be too heavily affected by these prints (and war headlines).
Tuesday:
- German CPI (heavy weight for the Euro zone)
- Australian budget release (AUD crowded long positions, anything that leans hawkish will provide little movement, anything dovish will generate large downside potential)
- US CPI (biggest hitter of the week, war increases the chance of this print coming out hot but thats what what's expected with previous at 3.3 YoY and consensus at 3.4 YoY anything below 3 will cause a huge downside move to USD especially as Kevin Warsh is in the final stages of coming into Fed Chair who is supposed to be a more dovish candidate then our previous chart Jerome Powell. Anything above 3.5 will generate a bullish move also as it could pivot the stance towards a hike in the bear future. Both side have large potential on this print but more aggressive if it misses and comes in below consensus)
Wednesday:
- RBNZ inflation expectations (New Zealand being the only economy in the G10 currently in a rate cutting cycle leaves the door open here for some large moves depending on the print. A miss will cause a large downside move as it becomes highly likely for further rate cuts. A hot print will lean more towards potential of holding rates causing a spike to the upside but likely with no follow through)
- US PPI ex food and energy (this won't carry much weight after CPI on Tuesday and mixed in with war headlines its not the main event of the week. Trade with caution but I wouldn't be too concerned about how this print will affect any longer term trades. Day traders still approach with caution as it will most likely just whipsaw)
- President Lagarde speech (Watch for the tone of this meeting, Euro zone is in a state of stagflation driven by the war. This meeting could bring what they plan to do to come out of this state and could leave the door open for some aggressive moves in EUR. No side is favoured here, very high risk to trade as sentiment can change on the flip of a coin)
Thursday:
- GBP GDP (UK is close to stagflation, watching this number will be a key driver, we need to see growth within the economy to keep out of the stagflation state and keep the UK out of recession, GDP has been trending down now for the last 6 months and really is looking for rate cuts. The UK is trapped! Needs to cut rates to boost the economy but also needs to keep inflation under control - this is stagflation starting. Completely war driven the UK has pivoted from rate cuts almost guaranteed in 2026 to now heading towards rate hikes. There's never been a better time for the UK to start drilling North Sea oil but I think we all know that won't happen)
- US retail sales (Not a market mover, again watch for whipsaw affect, has a direct affect on US GDP but the US economy is flying in that sense so even a miss by a long way wouldn't move the needle too much)
Main events:
- AUD budget release
- US CPI
- RBNZ inflation expectations
- Lagarde speech
- GBP GDP
The macro is important but right now war headlines are the main driver of this market. Watch CNBC, Bloomburg and keep an eye on headlines. Escalation and peace deals are the theme of the market and have been for a few months. Watch them, they will make or break your trades. Today seems to be very mixed in terms of risk sentiment. No news Monday this is classic fashion. Tomorrow is more than likely the day that will choose the direction for the week if no further war headlines break out
Trade responsibly, do your own analysis before placing any trades and most importantly have fun!
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What to watch this week
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