UBI feels less urgent to me than it did 24 months ago. The 2025 data just doesn’t support panic. The U.S. economy grew strongly: GDP +3.8% in Q2 and +4.4% in Q3. Yet payroll employment grew only 584,000 jobs. A dual-method estimate suggests 200,000 to 300,000 jobs were displaced or never created due to AI in 2025. That’s not mass unemployment. But it’s not nothing either. And here’s the key: it wasn’t mass AI layoffs. It was hiring suppression. Companies didn’t fire people in waves. They stopped backfilling. They slowed hiring. They absorbed productivity gains quietly. That’s why UBI feels less urgent today. But 2025 was the year of copilots. Drafting. Summarizing. Coding help. Task-level productivity. Copilots compress margins. They don’t remove layers. 2026 may be different. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 is being called an “AGI moment” by some observers. That might be exaggerated. But the reliability jump is real. Across models we’re seeing: • Output per prompt increasing significantly • Error rates in structured workflows dropping 50%+ • Multi-step task chaining becoming viable • Agents operating across tools and systems Internal enterprise tests suggest gains approaching 5x output per prompt in some structured environments. That’s not just task efficiency. That’s coordination compression. And that’s where roles start getting squeezed. The job numbers won’t show this immediately. You’ll see it first in fewer junior openings, wider spans of control, and higher output per mid-level employee. A labor market can look stable while structurally thinning. So yes, UBI feels less urgent. But if agent-level automation scales this year, should it? I discussed this in detail with Dalibor Petrovic, who works on post-labor economic modeling alongside David Shapiro. Full conversation here: https://youtu.be/4KWzvRL8n9o Are agents a 2026 inflection point? Or are we still in the productivity phase? Let’s discuss.

I just released the 1st Episode of season 3 of the Mindblowers Podcast... With the man who is trying to end aging - the mission is nothing less than to rejuvenate everyone back to their peak level of functioning... Obviously there are no guarantees but my guest Aubrey de Grey has a well defined 7 step project to get aging under medical control. His key message is: IT IS EASIER TO REJUVINATE THE BODY BY REMOVING AGING RELATED DAMAGE, THAN TO SLOW DOWN AGING. IF YOU ARE BIOLOGICALLY UNDER 50 TODAY YOU SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF REJUVINATION THERAPIES. Catch the interview here

I have just uploaded my full 2026 Intelligence Brief, which outlines the four major forces that I believe will shape the coming year and set the stage for the Turbulent Decade ahead. This report is not another collection of hype or sensational predictions. I have deliberately avoided the “everything changes in 12 months” narrative that dominates social media. Instead, I focus on the deeper structural trends that can actually be measured, that compound over time, and that leaders can strategically prepare for. The four pillars are: AI How efficiency, error reduction, and the widening implementation gap will reshape the labour market and competitive dynamics in 2026. Longevity Why a cultural shift in how we view health, aging, and human potential may be as important as any scientific breakthrough. Autonomous Cars How exposure, not technology, is the missing ingredient—and why 2026 is the year millions will experience driverless movement for the first time. The Trust Recession Why generative AI will both unlock creative abundance and erode our shared sense of reality, and how this will influence politics, media, and society. This brief is meant to give you clarity, perspective, and an early advantage. If you understand why these pillars matter and how they interact, you will be better positioned for the opportunities and risks of the coming decade. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments, challenge assumptions, or ask questions. I will be active here and happy to dive deeper into any of the themes. Here is the full report. I hope it serves you well.

I just released a new breakdown on CNN’s recent segment with Andrew Yang, where they argue that UBI may now be urgently required because AI is eliminating jobs. The problem is that the reports they cite don’t say that — in fact they predict disruption and transformation, not mass unemployment. And the proposed funding model for UBI simply doesn’t work at today’s level of AI profitability or competitiveness. Two key takeaways: • You can’t fund UBI by taxing AI companies before AI becomes powerful enough to generate real profits. • Slowing or overtaxing AI now would hand China the lead, making any future UBI less realistic — not more. Full video here: 👉 https://youtu.be/hVZbgDjOgRg?si=IWdu8MOq8bYDiSWu

Most future predictions suffer from the same problem: They’re too abstract. “AGI will transform society.” “Robots will automate everything.” “Longevity escape velocity is coming.” Great… but what does that actually look like in your home, your health, or your work? This week I wanted to make futurism tangible. Not theory — three concrete scenarios you can picture in your everyday life by 2035: 🟩 1. A home repair robot that arrives on your driveway like an Uber No waiting for electricians or plumbers — a fully autonomous Flathead-style bot that scans, diagnoses, and fixes the problem. 🟩 2. A home medical pod that replaces 80–90% of doctor visits A physical booth in your home analyzing blood, ECG, inflammation, metabolism — instantly connected to your wearable health data. 🟩 3. An AI-run digital business that grows while you’re offline A YouTube channel (or any info business) that ideates, produces, negotiates, edits, publishes, and optimizes with just one weekly check-in. These are not sci-fi hypotheticals — they’re grounded in real capabilities from Sora 2, Veo 3.1, robotics advances, and emerging healthcare tech. And the key question becomes: What will it actually feel like to live in a world where these three things exist? That’s what I explore in my newest video. 👉 Watch here: https://youtu.be/UhxaIwQNgXA After watching, I’d love to hear: Which of the three would change your life the most — and why?