The Most Impotant Week For Mortgage Rates In Years Starts Today

This week is one of the most consequential macro setups for mortgage rates in years — three major events land before Friday. Tuesday's April CPI report will show whether inflation eased or stayed hot (directly moving Treasury yields and rates). Sometime this week, Kevin Warsh is expected to face his full Senate confirmation vote as the next Fed Chair — analysts describe his stance as more inclined to cut rates, but bond markets may push yields higher if he cuts aggressively while inflation is still elevated. And Friday, Jerome Powell's eight-year tenure officially ends. Meanwhile, the housing market is functioning: inventory is up 2.3% year-over-year, new pending sales are up 10.7%, and 80% of buyers are actively purchasing. This week's data will either confirm or reshape that trajectory.

👇 Quick poll — what are you watching most closely this week?

Have a great week everyone!

-John

A) Tuesday's CPI inflation report (the number that drives Treasury yields and mortgage rates)

B) The Warsh Senate vote (new Fed Chair — more on what that actually means below)

C) Powell's Friday exit after 8 years

D) Honestly, all three — this whole week is one to track

2 votes

7:25

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