4d • General discussion
The Iran Deal Report Was Fake. And Home Prices Just Missed.
A Reuters report this week claiming Iran had committed to restoring Strait of Hormuz traffic within one month of a U.S. deal briefly moved markets — dropping oil prices, easing yields, and nudging rates lower — before the White House denied it as "a complete fabrication" within hours. No agreement has been signed, meaning the rate ceiling tied to war-elevated oil prices remains in place. On the home price front, the March Case-Shiller Index came in below expectations on both measures, showing deceleration in price growth — but this data reflects contracts from January and February, before the Iran conflict fully disrupted the market. NAR still confirms 34 consecutive months of year-over-year price appreciation, with both datasets together pointing to a market where prices remain positive but are normalizing. The honest headline heading into the weekend: rates stay elevated until a signed Iran deal changes the oil picture, and inventory pressure from 46.5% more sellers than buyers is naturally slowing — not reversing — price growth.
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The Iran Deal Report Was Fake. And Home Prices Just Missed.
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