Powell's Era Ends Today. The Data Says the Market is Still Strong.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the 17th Federal Reserve Chair on May 13th — and today, Jerome Powell's eight-year run officially ends. Warsh's first rate-setting meeting is June 16–17, and he walks in with April CPI at 3.8%, wholesale prices up 6%, and a roughly 30% market probability of a rate hike by December. Here's what the headlines aren't saying: home prices rose in 71% of U.S. metros in Q1, April showings were up 8% year over year, and purchase applications beat last year's levels for the second straight week. The honest read from economists this week — buyers are feeling the squeeze, and the housing market may remain a casualty of the Iran conflict until it resolves. The floor is holding, the ceiling is still there, and the agents who stay positioned now will be the ones who look back on this spring and say that was the moment.

Have a great weekend everyone!

-John

8:27

0 comments